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Introduction to Strategic Foresight - A01700245 Brenda…

- - - - The opposite of the Expected Future
      - Unexpected events that can create another situation
      - They can't be ruled out, anything could happen
    - - The path we want to persuade
      - It can be planned for certain results within a limited time
      - Helps to understand changes in a deeper way, although it can't predict them
    - - Something we expect to happen if everything we believe in is correct
      - Laws of science and physics
      - For example: Rules, signs, property rights are elements of the expected future
    - - The Expected Future
      - The Alternative Future
      - The Chosen Future
    - - The future is influences by the past and the present
      - The baseline future is created by the Expected Future
        
        Short term outcomes
        
        Small changes
      - Alternative futures are more plausible further away
        
        Different from the baseline future
        
        Multiple options
        
        Prepares for both negative or positive results
- - - - The closer environment or transactional
        environment
        
        Operates in a short time frame
        
        Rapid and frequent changes
        
        Fair knowledge and understanding of the environment
      - The broader (contextual) environment
        
        Take time to show they true impact
        
        Are essential to analyze disruptive changes
        
        Blobal scale environment
      - Example: The perceptual Iceberg
    - - Economical
      - Technological
      - Social
      - Environmental changes
      - Political changes