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CPIM Module 2 - Coggle Diagram

- - - - Product and Service Demand
        
        客户需求影响因素：economic conditions, local laws, and competition in the market
    - - CPFR
        
        Definition: a method to integrate components of demand management from partners across the supply chain in order to drive the success of the overall supply chain.
        
        CPFR planning cycle
        
        Work collaboratively with partners to plan forecasts and resolve conflicts for future cycles.
        
        Review plans with regard to expected demand.
        
        Review and analyze past plans and cycle performance
        
        Commit to the supply plan and order forecast, including agreements on how exceptions will be addressed when they occur.
        
        CPFR Advantages and Challenges P182
  - - - Defining Customers and Product-Service Parameters
        
        customer segment
        
        a grouping of customers who have similar needs or requirements
        
        Consumer segments are often divided further into market segments, which could be based on customer demographics, purchasing history, or even profitability to the organization.
        
        产品服务参数
        
        lead time, product availability, responsiveness to changes等等，需要考虑客户需求，Organizational policy（availability of trade credit, returns policy, and product servicing availability.）
      - Designing Products and Processes
        
        participative design/engineering//simultaneous engineering
        
        A concept that refers to the simultaneous participation of all the functional areas of the firm in the product design activity. Suppliers and customers are often also included
        
        Fixed cost：for example, rent, property tax, and salaries of certain personnel.
        
        Variable cost：e.g., direct materials consumed, sales commissions
        
        make-or-buy decision
        
        The act of deciding whether to produce an item internally or buy it from an outside supplier. 考虑因素：costs, capacity availability, proprietary and/or specialized knowledge, quality considerations, skill requirements, volume, and timing.
        
        Outsourcing
        
        The process of having suppliers provide goods and services that were previously provided internally. Outsourcing involves substitution—the replacement of internal capacity and production by that of the supplier
        
        Subcontracting
        
        Sending production work outside to another manufacturer.
        
        scrap
        
        material outside of specifications and possessing characteristics that make rework impractical.
      - Designing Materials Flow
        
        determining how materials will flow into, through, and out of the manufacturing process from acquisition to use and eventual distribution
        
        may also need to account for reverse logistics—returns, end-of-life disposal, or remanufacture.
      - Designing Customer Service and Support
        
        Service: Sometimes used to describe those activities that support the production or distribution functions in any organization, such as customer service and field service.
      - Product Life Cycle and Manufacturing Environments
        
        Product life cycle要了解定义
        
        Introduction: spend a lot on marketing to raise awareness of the product, Design can be a differentiator, and ensuring availability, Sales are very low, incurs losses, Many products fail, importance of needing good information on customer requirements and demand.
        
        Growth: products gain market share rapidly, lot of stress on manufacturing and distribution,
        
        Maturity: product is no longer new, products might be enhanced to keep them profitable for longer or to allow time for replacement products to be developed, price reductions or additional services
        
        Decline: no longer in demand or demand may be falling at a steady or increasing rate ,Profits might still be made
  - - - Independent demand: The demand for an item that is unrelated to the demand for other items. 三个例子: Demand for finished goods, parts required for destructive testing, and service parts requirements
      - Dependent demand: Demand that is directly related to or derived from the bill-of-material structure for other items or end products.
      - Independent demand可以简单的的认为是最终产品或者服务，dependent demand是原材料，或者组成最终产品的需要物品。ID也是forecast和order management的对象，而不是DD
      - The sources of independent demand: Forecasting, End customers (finished goods and service parts), Replenishment orders, Interplant demand or intercompany transfers (e.g., between subsidiaries), Internal use (research and development, quality control, destructive testing, marketing use). 上面的source除了forecast以外，其他的加一起就是actual order
      - Interplant demand(车间需求): One plant’s need for a part or product that is produced by another plant or division within the same organization.
    - - Demand Patterns
        
        Seasonality: a predictable repetitive pattern of demand measured within a year where demand grows and declines. These are calendar-related patterns that can appear annually, quarterly, monthly, weekly, daily and/or hourly.”
        
        Trend: general upward or downward movement of a variable over time (e.g., demand, process attribute).
        
        Cycle: the wavelike patterns observed in the growth and recession trends of the economy over years
        
        Random variation: any variation left over after seasonality and trends have been accounted for
        
        Stable Versus Dynamic Demand:
  - - - Forecasts and Forecasting
        
        Forecast: An estimate of future demand. A forecast can be constructed using quantitative methods, qualitative methods, or a combination of methods, and it can be based onextrinsic (external) or intrinsic (internal) factors. Various forecasting techniques attempt to predict one or more of the four components of demand: cyclical, random, seasonal, and trend.
        
        Forecasting: The business function that attempts to predict sales and use of products so they can be purchased or manufactured in appropriate quantities in advance.
      - Forecast Horizon
        
        At the strategic and manufacturing business plan levels time horizons are very long, from two to 10 years.
        
        At the tactical level, forecasting is conducted using aggregate information on product families for a time horizon of one to three years.
        
        At the operational level, forecasting is conducted using item-level information over the time horizon required for master scheduling, which can be from three to 18 months.
      - Forecasting Principles
        
        Forecasts are wrong most of the time
        
        Always be sure there is an estimate of forecast reliability or error rates for each forecast
        
        Forecasts are more accurate for product families than for individual items.
        
        Forecasting is more accurate in the near term than in the long term
      - Forecasting Process
        
        Determine purpose.
        
        Set level of aggregation and units of measure.
        
        Select horizon and planning bucket(计划时段，每季度，每月等). / A long-term horizon (years or quarters) usually uses total sales in dollars; medium-term (quarters or months) uses product families in units; and short-term (weeks or days) uses products or SKUs in units.
        
        Gather and visualize the data.
        
        Choose the forecasting technique.
        
        Prepare the data for the technique.
        
        Test the forecast using historical data.
        
        Forecast.
        
        Achieve consensus on the forecast.
        
        Continuously improve.
      - Collecting/Preparing Data for Forecasting
        
        Total demand包括Net sales (sales minus returns), Backorders, Requests that could not be fulfilled due to rejected lead time or price quote, Requests that had to be filled from other plants or locations
        
        Data Collection and Preparation Principles
        
        The data should be collected in the format in which they will be used in forecasting
        
        Record any circumstances or events related to the data
        
        Separating demand by customer segment
        
        If seasonality exists, itmust be removed prior to forecasting and then added back in prior to interpreting the results
        
        Deseasonalization, Seasonal Index, and Seasonal Forecasts
        
        计算seasonal index， deseasonalized demand,
    - - Qualitative Forecasting Methods
        
        Qualitative techniques forecast probable events based on human judgment, experience, intuition, and educated guesses rather than math.
        
        常用于不稳定局势且没有历史数据，也常用于根据实际经济，竞争者行为等来对定量分析进行修改
        
        Historical analogy: history of a similar product, and using that past pattern to predict future sales.
        
        judgmental/expert opinion: a technique in which a team of experts or other stakeholders use their detailed knowledge of products, customers, forecasting methods, historical error rates, and the market to generate a forecast or, more frequently, to adjust the quantitative forecast
        
        Panel consensus: A qualitative forecasting technique where the opinions of experts are combined in a series of iterations. The results of each iteration are used to develop the next, so that convergence of the experts’ opinions is obtained.
      - Quantitative Forecasting Methods: Extrinsic Forecasting
        
        extrinsic forecasting method外在预测法: A forecast method using a correlated leading indicator; for example, estimating furniture sales based on housing starts.
        
        leading indicators: A specific business activity index that indicates future trends. For example, housing starts is a leading indicator for the industry that supplies builders’ hardware.
        
        the best way to detect changes in a trend
        
        It is best used in long-term planning at the total company demand or product family level, because correlation is a macroeconomic observation.
        
        常用的外部预测方法Simple and multiple regression analysis
      - Quantitative Methods: Intrinsic (Time-Series) Forecasting
        
        intrinsic forecast method: a forecast based on internal factors, such as an average of past sales
        
        Deseasonalized Demand: 平滑指数=季度或者周期的平均数/总平均数
        
        Moving Averages: 需要知道计算发放，要先去季节性，然后再乘回来。另外，第四期，需要1，2，3期的数据，预测期是哪一期别搞错。缺点: 需要很多前期的数据，而指数平滑，不需要的，只要前一期的数据。
        
        Exponential Smoothing: 要知道怎么计算预测值=前一期实际值a+前一期预测值（1-a）
        
        None of intrinsic forecasting method really work well for longer-term forecasting
    - - Bias Versus Random Variation
        
        Bias: A consistent deviation from the mean in one direction (high or low). A normal property of a good forecast is that it is not biased.
        
        Variance around the average that results in no bias is called random variation.
      - Deviation Versus Forecast Error
        
        Actual demand minus the forecast is a measure of forecast deviation预测偏差（会相互抵消）
        
        Forecast error is concerned with measuring the total amount of variability in the forecast, so it uses absolute values, meaning values with no plus or minus signs.
        
        Forecast error（百分比）=偏差/预测值（题目中的公式）
      - Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
        
        定义：The average of the absolute values of the deviations of observed values from some expected value.
        
        MAD=ABS(actual-forecast)/Number of period
    - - Tracking Signal
        
        定义: The ratio of the cumulative algebraic sum of the deviations between the forecasts and the actual values to the mean absolute deviation.
        
        公式 Tracking Signal=Algebraic sum of forecast deviations/MAD
      - Contingency Planning and Safety Stock
    - - Reviewing and Revising the Forecast
        
        exceptional or one-time events和Changes in a trend都会影响数据
        
        Exceptional or one-time events might include a customer stockpiling product based on an anticipated strike, customer plant shutdowns or equipment failures, or severe weather keeping customers at home.
        
        Changes in a trend might be caused by the acquisition or loss of a major customer, entering a new market, or a shift in a product’s life cycle to a new phase.
      - Moving Toward Less Need for Forecasting