Session-6 Fundamental Analysis
Economy Analysis
Economy Forecasting
Barometric Approach
Geometric Approach
IV
less than MV
more than MV
equal
buy
sell
no
Economy-Industry-Company Approach
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Sales
Competitive Strenght
Industry demand/supply
national income
savings
population
price level
monetary credit policy
EXport import policy
COGS
Operating efficiency
industry wage level
industry, infrastructure, import/export policy
national wage policy price level
raw material production
economic infr
EBITDA
Capital structure, interest rate, fiscal policy
Economy Factors
Inflation
WPI
CPI
currency devaluation
oil
tarrifs
includs services
necessary
business incentive and growth
less than growth rate
imported or increased prod
interest
more than inflation
Wages
Spread
lending rates
relation with inflation
Fiscal
deficit
surplus
bond yield reduce
decrease sovereign rating
decrease investor conf
FII withdraw
sell rupee buy dollar
Answers
past/present/future
sectorial growth
Macro Economic
money supply
monsson
productivity of factors production
economic industrial polices
industrial prod capacity utilization
Global Economy
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Leading Indicator
Lagging Indicator
avg weekly hrs of production
avg weekly unemployment claims
plant orders contracts
stock price index
money supply
change in unfilled orders
index of consumers expactations
outstanding commericial loans
avg duration of unemployment
avg interest rate
inventories to sale ratio
Tax
Tax planning
fiscal policy
Dividend
dividend policy
industry practice
fiscal policy
fiscal deficit
stage of business cycle
trends in capital market
credit/deposit ratio
unemployment
inflation
GDP
cost of living index
BOP
foreign investment
Anticipatory Survey
term
short <3
intermediate <5
long > 5
Diffusion index
personal opinion
may not materialize
Coincidental indicators
trade sales
industrial production index
Composite index
Component evaluation index
4/10
measure breadth of movement within each component
regression
econometrics
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