Session-6 Fundamental Analysis

Economy Analysis

Economy Forecasting

Barometric Approach

Geometric Approach

IV

less than MV

more than MV

equal

buy

sell

no

Economy-Industry-Company Approach

Efficient Market Hypothesis

Sales

Competitive Strenght

Industry demand/supply

national income

savings

population

price level

monetary credit policy

EXport import policy

COGS

Operating efficiency

industry wage level

industry, infrastructure, import/export policy

national wage policy price level

raw material production

economic infr

EBITDA

Capital structure, interest rate, fiscal policy

Economy Factors

Inflation

WPI

CPI

currency devaluation

oil

tarrifs

includs services

necessary

business incentive and growth

less than growth rate

imported or increased prod

interest

more than inflation

Wages

Spread

lending rates

relation with inflation

Fiscal

deficit

surplus

bond yield reduce

decrease sovereign rating

decrease investor conf

FII withdraw

sell rupee buy dollar

Answers

past/present/future

sectorial growth

Macro Economic

money supply

monsson

productivity of factors production

economic industrial polices

industrial prod capacity utilization

Global Economy

click to edit

Leading Indicator

Lagging Indicator

avg weekly hrs of production

avg weekly unemployment claims

plant orders contracts

stock price index

money supply

change in unfilled orders

index of consumers expactations

outstanding commericial loans

avg duration of unemployment

avg interest rate

inventories to sale ratio

Tax

Tax planning

fiscal policy

Dividend

dividend policy

industry practice

fiscal policy

fiscal deficit

stage of business cycle

trends in capital market

credit/deposit ratio

unemployment

inflation

GDP

cost of living index

BOP

foreign investment

Anticipatory Survey

term

short <3

intermediate <5

long > 5

Diffusion index

personal opinion

may not materialize

Coincidental indicators

trade sales

industrial production index

Composite index

Component evaluation index

4/10

measure breadth of movement within each component

regression

econometrics

click to edit