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2.7 - Coggle Diagram
2.7
World.Minds
Gerd Gigerenzer (2011)
Heuristics that makes us smart
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIsNt_7sah4
Risk vs Uncertainty
Decision under Risk
Decisions taken where all relevant alternatives, consequences, and probabilities are known for certain
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Heuristics
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To solve problems in the real world, look for simple solutions, look for the one variable that could solve it
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When is system 1 or 2 appropriate.
Leeds University Centre for Decision Research
Podcast, Kause, Bown and Pearman
The podcast is to explore Heuristic processing (cognitive short-cuts) role in decision making, is it functional or dysfunctional or both?
System 1 could be prone to negative predictive errors (biases) such as anchoring, availability and representativeness biases which are detrimental (Alan)
The paradigm of ecological rationality, they are positive and help us make rational decision through system 1 (Astrid)
Ecological rationality is influenced by economic, biology and evolutionary sciences
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Time pressure is an essential factor when choosing to decide based on heuristic processing rather than system 2 deliberate thinking
Reasoning the Fast & Frugal Way: Models of Bounded Rationality
(Gerd Gigerenzer, 1996)
They developed a 'one-reason' decision making approach called the Fast and Frugal approach, following Herbert Simon's notion of Satisficing
The fast and frugal algorithms do not required the search for nor the integration of all information to make a decision
A computer simulation was conducted to contrast the performance of the Tak-the-Best heuristic and a mathematical model 'multiple regression'.
The take-the-best heuristic matched or outperformed the mathematical model in inferential speed and accuracy