Please enable JavaScript.
Coggle requires JavaScript to display documents.
week4 :PROBABILITY - A numerical measure of the likelihood a specific…
week4 :PROBABILITY - A numerical measure of the likelihood a specific event will occur
Chapter Goals
After completing this chapter, you should be able to
Explain basic probability concepts and definitions.
Calculate the probability value based on classical and relative frequency definition of probability
Apply common rules of probability
Apply common rules of probability
Element of Uncertainty
Often we make statements like
Kuala Lumpur may rain this afternoon
There is a fair chance that Team A wins the match
Compare the above statements with the following
The dean of FSS is surprised to find that there are more boys than girls enrolled into social sciences course.
The undergraduates in UNIMAS, on average, have a CGPA of 3.01.
When the occurrence of some event is due to the element of uncertainty, it is called a probability statement
Assessing Probability
There are three approaches to assessing the probability of an uncertain event
classical probability
relative frequency probability
subjective probability
Important Terms
Random – where the outcome cannot be predicted with certainty beforehand
experiment – any process that yields an outcome (allows researchers to obtain observations).
Random Experiment – a process leading to an uncertain outcome (the outcome can only be determined in terms of chances/probabilities)
Sample Space – the collection (set) of all possible outcomes of a random experiment
Event – a subset of outcomes from the sample space
Classical Probability
If a trial can result in n mutually exclusive, equally likely and exhaustive outcomes and out of which m outcomes are favourable to an event A,
Tossing a coin, the Sample space S would be {head, tail} If you get a head from the toss (A={H}), the probability of observing head is P (head)=1/2.
Probability laws
P(AB) - probability that either A occurs or B occurs or both occur simultaneously.
P(AB) - probability of the simultaneous occurrence of both A and B.
P(AB) - conditional probability of the occurrence of A given that B has already occurred.