Chap 2: International Monetary System

The Mexican Peso Crisis
The Argentine Peso Crisis ⭐

click to edit

Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rate
Regimes ⭐

The Asian Currency Crisis ⭐

The Euro and the European Monetary Union ⭐

Conventional peg ⛔

Rawling peg ⛔

The Current Exchange Rate Arrangements ⭐



Evolution of the International Monetary System

Interwar period + Bretton Wood system 🎊

Bimetallism + Classical Gold Standardtext 🔥

The Flexible exchange rate regime 💥

Classical Gold Standardtext 🚩

Bimetallism 🚩

The Inter war Period: 1915-1944

Brettons Woods System: 1945-1972

The Flexible Exchange Rate Regime (1973-Present) ✏

Exchange Rate Volatility (1970 1973): ✏

Rise and decline of the Dollar (1980-1988): ✏

Benefits of Monetary Union 🖊

Brief history of the euro currency 🖋

The Argentine Peso Crisis: ❌

The Mexican Peso Crisis ❌

Causes 🔒

Solution : 🔒

Lessons 🔒

European Monetary System ⭐

Disadvantages ✅

Advantages ✅

Define ✅

Define

Supporters of bimetallism offer three arguments for it

Advantage

Definition

Arguments advanced against bimetallism are:

The international monetary system before the 1870s can be characterized as “bimetallism” in the sense that both gold and silver were used as international means of payment and that the exchange rates among currencies were determined by either their gold or silver contents.




click to edit

Greater price stability will result from the larger monetary base

Greater ease in the determination and stabilization of exchange rates among countries using gold, silver, or bimetallic standards will result.

The combination of two metals can provide greater monetary reserves

Because price stability is dependent on more than the type of monetary base, bimetallism does not provide greater stability of prices.

Such a system is wasteful in that the mining, handling, and coinage of two metals is more costly.

It is practically impossible for a single nation to use such a standard without having international cooperation;

The gold standard is a monetary system where a country's currency or paper money has a value directly linked to gold

A fixed exchange rate to the gold standard reduces the risk of fluctuations in the prices of imports and exports between countries and promotes international trade.
Under the gold standard, international imbalances of payment will also be corrected automatically.

It creates certainty in international trade by providing a fixed pattern of exchange rates.

It limits inflation due to the limited supply of gold

Disadvantages

The gold standard can cause imbalances among the participating countries

It may not provide sufficient flexibility in the supply of money.

Freed from war time pegging, exchange rates among currencies were fluctuating in the early 1920s

USA was able to lift restrictions on gold exports and return to a gold standard in 1919.

[World War I ended the classical gold standard in August 1914, as major countries such as Great Britain, France, Germany and Russia suspended redemption of bank notes in gold and imposed embargoes on gold exports.

In summary, the inter war period was characterized by economic nationalism, half hearted attempts and failures to restore the gold standard, economic and political instabilities, bank failures and panicky flights of capital across boarders.

The IMF then created an artificial international reserve called the SAR in 1970

In July 1994, representatives of 44 nations gathered at BreHon Wooods, New Hansphire, to discuss and design the postwar international monetary system

This agreement was then ratified to launch the IMF in 1945

The Jamaica Agreement include:

Gold was officially abandoned (i.e., demonetized) as an international reserve asset

January 1976 The flexible exchange rate regime that followed the demise of the Bretton Woods system

Since March 1973, exchange rates have become substantially more volatile than they were under the Bretton Woods system

The decline of the dollar between 1970 and 1973 represents the transition from the Bretton Woods to the flexible exchange rate system.

The IMF continued to provide assistance to countries facing balance of payments and exchange rate difficulties

Rise: The US Dollar experienced a major appreciation throughout the first half of the 1980s

Decline and stabilization: The value of the dollar reached its peak in February 1985 and then began a persistent downward drift until it stabilized in 1988.

• 1980: The Reagan administration ushered in a period of growing U.S. budget deficits and balance of payments deficits.

1996-Present: ✏

2001: began to depreciate due to a sharp stock market correction, the ballooning trade deficits, and the increased political uncertainty

2010: began to appreciate, reflecting the recovery of the U.S. economy from the effect of the Great Recession.

The technological boom caused the dollar to generally appreciated

Stabilised arrangement ⛔

Crawl-like arrangement 🚫

Currency board ⛔

Pegged exchange rate within horizontal bands: 🚫

No separate legal tender ⛔

Other managed arrangement: 🚫

click to edit

Free floating: 🚫

Floating: 🚫

The currency of another country circulates as the sole legal tender. Adopting such an arrangement implies complete surrender of the monetary authorities' control over the domestic monetary policy. Examples include Ecuador, El Salvador, and Panama.

: A currency board arrangement is a monetary arrangement based on an explicit legislative commitment

Classification as a stabilized arrangement entails a spot market exchange rate that remains within a margin of 2 percent for 6 months or more (with the exception of a specified number of outliers or step adjustments) and is not floating

For this category the country formally (de jure) pegs its currency at a fixed rate to another currency or a basket of currencies

: Classification as a crawling peg involves the confirmation of the country authorities' de jure exchange rate arrangement.

The exchange rate must remain within a restricted margin of 2% compared to a statistically recognized trend for six months or longer

A pegged exchange rate is an exchange rate that is fixed or allowed to fluctuate within a narrow range against another currency or gold

This category is a residual and is used when an exchange rate arrangement does not meet the criteria for any other type.

A floating exchange rate or a flexible exchange rate is an exchange rate that is determined based on the supply-demand relationship in the foreign exchange market.

Free float, also known as a public transfer, refers to a company's stock that can be publicly traded and unrestricted


• The European Monetary System (EMS) was succeeded by the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), which established a common currency, the euro.

• Arose concurrently with the decline of the Bretton Woods system was called the snake

The European Monetary System (EMS) was established to stabilize inflation and stop large exchange rate fluctuations between these neighboring nations, with the intended goal of making it easy for them to trade goods with each other.

• The name “snake” was derived from the way the EEC currencies moved closely together within the wider band allowed for other currencies like the dollar.

• The European Monetary System (EMS) was an adjustable exchange rate arrangement set up in 1979 to foster closer monetary policy cooperation between members of the European Community (EC). :

European Monetary System (EMS) was created in 1979 to establish a European zone of monetary stability

With the formation of the European Economic Community in 1958.

Transaction expenses are reduced

Conditions favourable to the establishment of continental capital markets with comparable depth and liquidity to those in the United States.

Exchange rate uncertainty is no longer an issue.

+ Europe's political cooperation and peace

Enhanced European economy efficiency and competitiveness

The euro really began its journey with the launching of the euro on January 1, 1999

The European Monetary Union (EMU) was created when 11 countries (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain) fixed their exchange rates and created a new currency with monetary policy passed to the European Central Bank.

The creation of an economic and monetary union was proposed as early as the late 1960s.

In 2002, euro coins and notes came to circulation and national currencies were gradually withdrawn.

Investing

Working on an online platform.

Paying commission to a broker

Economic integration brings the benefits of greater size, internal efficiency and robustness to the EU economy as a whole and to the economies of the individual Member States.

The monetary union has made the EU the third largest economy in the world in nominal terms, after the United States and China, and third in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), after China and the United States.

Reson

Solution

Reson:

The country's currency has been overvalued relative to its true value.

Mexico has attracted huge amounts of foreign investment, and for this very reason has made Mexico worse off.

1994: Due to macroeconomic management problems, the exchange rate has been fixed for a long time

Labor market inflexibility.

Contagion from the financial crises in Russia and Brazil.

The lack of fiscal discipline.

As world economic growth in the early 2000s was strong and Argentine producers benefitted from the strong depreciation of the currency, the Argentine economy was able to recover rather quickly.

Solution

Financial currency adjustment

Emergency assistance financial package

Advances in structural reform and market liberalization

interlocking ownership between banks and non-bank corporations

government-business relation

high corporate leverage

IMF intervened, providing loans to stabilize the Asian economy - also known as the "tiger economy" - which was affected

investors should beware of asset bubbles - some of them can burst

sending investors into turmoil when they do

layer of infrastructure dictated by the government could contribute to the funding bubble of this war – and the same could be relevant for any future events.

Join at the wrong rate

Require higher interest rates.

Stability encourages investment

Keep inflation low

Avoid currency fluctuations

A fixed exchange rate is a regime applied by a government or central bank that ties the country's official currency exchange rate to another country's currency or the price of gold.

If the value of currencies fluctuates, significantly this can cause problems for firms engaged in trade.

The uncertainty of exchange rate fluctuations can reduce the incentive for firms to invest in export capacity

Governments who allow their exchange rate to devalue may cause inflationary pressures to occur

Current account

A rapid appreciation in the exchange rate will badly affect manufacturing firms who export; this may also cause a worsening of the current account

Less flexibility

Current account imbalances

Conflict with other macroeconomic objectives

Difficulty in keeping the value of the currency

Encourage speculative attacks

Some argue a fixed exchange rate would encourage stability and therefore there is no point investors ‘speculating against the currency’

If a currency is falling below its band the government will have to intervene. It can do this by buying sterling but this is only a short-term measure

Fixed exchange rates can lead to current account imbalances

It is difficult to know the right rate to join at. If the rate is too high, it will make exports uncompetitive

In a fixed exchange rate, it is difficult to respond to temporary shocks

To maintain a fixed level of the exchange rate may conflict with other macroeconomic objectives.

Group7-IB1602