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Global warming, Plastics, Climate Justice, Oil, gas, and coal. Oil, gas,…

- - - - Ocean heat uptake
        
        impacts
        
        Less carbon storage
        
        More energy to storms
        
        Coral reefs bleaching
        
        SLR by thermal expansion
        
        measurements
        
        14 ZJ in 2021
        
        20 times the world's annual energy consumption
        
        Cheng et al., 2022
        
        Paper
        
        Video
        
        Larger than we thought
        
        Terhaar et al., 2022
      - Sea level rise
        
        Could affect the tidal energy efficiency
        
        📃
      - Stratification
        
        Strengthened
        
        Li et al., 2020
    - - 0.2 degC per decade
        
        (cited by Jolly et al., 2015)
        Hansen et al., 2010
      - More severe, widespread droughts
        
        (cited by Jolly et al., 2015)
        Dai, 2013
        
        :check:But frequencies unchanged
        
        (cited by Jolly et al., 2015)
        Sheffield et al., 2012
    - - Acceleration of water cycle
        
        (cited by Jolly et al., 2015)
        Trenberth et al., 2003
      - Heatwaves increase
        
        📃 Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al., 2020
        
        IPCC WG1 Chapter 11
        
        📃 Seneviratne et al., 2021
      - Clouds
        
        Marine stratocumulus
        
        Closed cells (that have high albedo)
        decreases due to global warming
        
        Schneider et al., 2019
        
        :warning: CO2 of 1200 ppm
        
        📃
      - Upper atmosphere cooling
        
        CO2 increases faster in the upper atmos;
        where air is thin enough for heat to escape to the space, not being absorbed by other molecules
        
        Long discussed in models but first
        identified in the OBS
        
        ✅ Augmenting evidence of human influence
        
        Mlynczak et al., 2022
        
        Upper atmosphere contraction
        
        Literally, the sky is falling.
        
        Weaker drag on satellites - longer lifespan before falling
        
        📃
        
        Polar stratospheric clouds
        
        Ozone hole
        
        Effects on SSW
        
        Affects the jet
      - More destructive extratropical cyclones
        
        Extratropical transition (ET):
        Tropical cyclone-to-extratropical cyclone transformation
        
        Cheung et al., 2023
      - Jet stream strengthening
        
        📃 Shaw and Miyawaki, 2023
    - - More warming over the land>ocean
        & Drier continents
        
        Byrne and O'Gorman, 2018
      - Drought-to-Flood transitions increase
        
        1980-2020 observation
        
        Humid region:
        
        Drought
        
        More evaporative demand
        
        More latent heat flux?
        
        1 more item...
        
        Warming
        
        e_s(T) increase
        
        1 more item...
        
        Dry region:
        
        Drought
        
        Atmospheric moisture convergence?
        
        Flood
        
        Qing et al., 2023
    - - Ice melting
        
        Derived effects:
        
        Changes in Arctic Oscillation
        
        Western US fires
        
        📃
        
        sea level rise
        
        unequal regional rises
        
        The Gulf of Maine: fast warming than 97% of the global ocean
        
        Less plankton
        
        Right whales dying
        
        Mountain glaciers
        
        Flooding
  - - - Projection
        
        Narrower/weaker
        
        (cited by Kug et al., 2021)
        Byrne and Schneider, 2016
        Byrne et al., 2018
    - - Heatwave
        
        Heatwave 30 times more likely
        in India and Pakistan;
        comparing 1951 or 1979 and 2022
        
        Zachariah et al., 2022
        
        +0.5/1.5 degC warming increases
        the probability by 2-20 times more
        
        European heatwave 3degC hotter
        
        https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-02384-z
      - Compound events
        
        2022 6-8 Central/Eastern/Southern China
        
        Strongest&longest heat wave since 1961
        
        Severe drought
        
        Nature news
        
        out-of-season forest fires and pockest of heavy rains
        
        Zscheischler et al., 2018
      - Flash floods
        
        arid areas
        
        📃
      - Hurricanes
        
        Indian Ocean
        (Southern Hemispheric part)
        
        📃
    - - Urban trees over 164 cities
        
        More vulnerable
        low latitudes
        
        Esperon-Rodriguez et al., 2022
      - Tree mortality rates
        
        Western US
        unmanaged forests
        
        Van Mantgem et al., 2009
      - "Macroclimatic debt"
        
        (cited by Esperon-Rodriguez et al., 2022) Richard et al., 2021
        
        “biotic responses lagging behind climate change”
        
        Bertrand et al., 2011
    - - Antarctic
        
        AABW
        
        40% slowdown in under three decades
        
        Li et al., 2023
        
        Antarctic Tourism Is Up
        
        📃
      - North Atlantic
        
        AMOC
        
        :red_flag: More stable than thought
        
        Pöppelmeier et al., 2023
  - - - More frequent tripple La Nina?
        
        Floods in southeast Asia
        
        Wildfires in the southwestern US
- - - - Joos and Spahni, 2008
    - - Carbon budget
        
        Ocean uptake
        
        Terhaar et al., 2022
        
        Emission by nations
        
        GCP, 2021
        
        UNEP Climate Action
        
        Record high in 2022
        being 37.5 bt
        
        1% increase
        
        Nature article
        
        Land carbon sink increase
        between 1960-2010
        
        (cited by Zhang et al., 2023)
        Ballantyne et al., 2012
      - CO2 concentration
        
        Globally represented
        
        NASA
        
        Download time series data
        Customize time series plot
        ...
        
        Mauna Loa: 1960~
        
        South Pole: 1980~
        
        NOAA
        
        Global distribution
        
        AIRS
        (IR sounder on a satellite)
        
        horizontalXvertical CO2
        
        2002~2017?
        
        📃
        
        Regional emission
        
        Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS)
        
        horizontal over the Europe
        
        2019-2020
  - - - Changes in fire weather conditions
        
        (cited by Son et al., 2021)
        Sun et al., 2019
      - :red_flag:Realistic?
        
        📃
    - - The half a degree additional warming,
        prognosis and projected impacts project
        
        (cited by Son et al., 2021)
        Portner et al., 2019; Mitchell et al., 2017
        
        Changes in climate extremes
        
        Droughts
        
        (cited by Son et al., 2021)
        Lehner et al., 2017
        
        Heatwaves
        
        (cited by Son et al., 2021)
        Wehner et al., 2018
        
        Hydrological cycles
        
        (cited by Son et al., 2021)
        Madakumbura et al., 2019
        
        Changes in fire weather conditions
        
        Son et al., 2021
        
        :red_flag: Atmosphere-only models
    - - Wu et al., 2010
        (Temporary acceleration...)
      - Wu et al., 2011
        (Extended warming...)
      - Boucher et al., 2012
      - Wu et al., 2015
        (The reversibility...)
    - - IAMs to estimate carbon "emissions"
        +
        Choice of climate model [A,B]
        to estimate CO2 pathway
        
        IAMs
        
        DICE
        
        IMAGE
        
        MESSAGE
        
        GEM-E3
        
        REMIND
        
        📃Diemer et al., 2019;
        Review for 6 IAMs
        
        World 3
        
        [A] Simple climate models to estimate atmospheric CO2
        
        :red_flag: MAGICC
        
        More like a climate 'module' to be embedded in IAMs?
        
        Climate model with global mean carbon cycle
        
        MAGICC has a hemispherically averaged upwelling-diffusion ocean coupled to an atmosphere layer and a globally averaged carbon cycle model.
        
        📃
        
        [B] ESMs to estimate atmospheric CO2
        
        📃Melnikova et al., 2023
  - - - IPCC
        
        (cited by Ciais et al., 2013)
        Prather et al., 2012
    - - 📃
- - - - Impacts
        
        0.5 degC difference leads to
        significant increase in wildfire hazard;
        
        in Amazon, African savanna, and Mediterranean
        
        Son et al., 2021
      - Justification?
        
        :!: No scientific basis :!:
        
        Cointe and Guillemot, 2023
    - - 16 Pathwatys
        
        Lu et al., 2022
      - Rewilding wildebeests
        
        Gazing -> Less wildfires
        
        Schmitz et al., 2023
      - Mammal diversity
        
        Soil nutrient, carbon retention, ...
        
        Sobral et al., 2017
        
        📃
    - - COP27 in Egypt
        
        a promised goal to provide climate finance of $100 billion annually (~2020) to vulnerable nations
        
        :red_flag: Failed!
        
        Link📃
    - - Ciullo et al., 2023
    - - Sep 2015
        
        17 SDG goals
        
        As of Sep 2023, only about 12% has been met
        
        📃Naturue article
    - - 📃
  - - - 50% of chance for
        1.5 degC by 2050
        
        60% of oli/fossil methane gas and
        90% of coal must remain unextractable
        
        📃 Welsby et al., 2021
        
        Oil and gas production must decline
        by 3%/year by 2050?
      - 📃 Backgrounds
- - - - Nature article
      - Callahan and Mankin, 2022
  - - - 📃
- - - - Could be either
        positive or negative
        
        Temperature -> Vegetation -> Carbon
        
        Signs depending on the biome
        
        Negative feedback
        Warming
        -> GPP increase
        -> More carbon uptake
        -> Cooling
        
        Boreal/Temperate forests
        
        Braswell et al., 1997
        
        Positive feedback
        Warming
        -> GPP decrease
        -> Less carbon uptake
        -> Warming
        
        The tropics;
        where the temperature is already almost optimal
        
        Braswell et al., 1997
        
        (cited by Zhang et al., 2023)
        Niu et al., 2012
        
        CO2 -> Vegetation -> Carbon
        
        Positive feedback
        CO2 increase
        -> Higher photosynthesis
        and water use efficiency
        -> More carbon uptake
        -> CO2 decrease
        
        (cited by Zhang et al., 2023)
        Cox et al., 2013
        
        Negative feedback
        CO2 increase
        -> More soil/veget respiration
        -> More carbon emission
        -> CO2 increase
      - Positive feedback
        
        Temperature -> Fires -> Carbon
        
        Temperature
        -> Slow post-fire recovery
        -> Less carbon uptake
        
        (cited by Zheng et al., 2023)
        Burrell et al., 2021
        
        Harrison et al., 2018
      - (cited by IPCC AR5)
        Bowman et al., 2009; Pechony and Shindell, 2010; Thonicke et al., 2010
      - (cited by Harrison et al., 2018)
        Arora et al., 2013; Cox et al., 2013; Wenzel et al., 2014
      - Negative feedback
    - - Low-level clouds (over the SO?)
        
        Positive feedback
        Cold SST
        -> LLC increase
        -> SW decrease
        -> Cold SST
  - - - Cloud feedback
        
        (cited by Shin et al., 2023)
        
        Southern Ocean
        
        Low-level cloud amount (LLC)
        
        Initially (PI) cold SO surface
        -> Large amount of LLC
        -> Fast warming to 2degC
        
        in the mid-latitudes
        
        Shin et al., 2023
        
        +) Initially cold SO
        -> Large sea ice extent in the "high" latitude
        -> strong albedo feedback
        -> fast warming
      - Oceanic heat uptake
        
        Affects more long-term warming rate
        (compared to the 2degC warming rate)
        
        Shin et al., 2023
      - Radiative forcing
      - Surface warming pattern matters
        
        📃