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Voting behaviour and the media - Coggle Diagram
Voting behaviour and the media
Election case studies
1979
Results
Conservatives win 43.9% of the votes and win 339 seats (up by 62).
Labour win 36.9% of the votes and win 269 seats (down by 50).
Liberals win 13.8% of the seats and win 11 seats (down by 2).
This election inaited an 18 year Conservative rule over the UK and saw Thatcher win her first election with a majority of 43.
Turnout was 76%.
Policy and manifesto
Both manifestos were notiable for their moderation.
Callaghan was from the right of the Labour party and had resited calls from those on the left of his party to produce a more radical manifesto.
Thatcher's manifesto contained very little indication of her free market crusade that was to come.
When Callaghan warned of a lurch to the right under a Thatcher government it had little credabnility as people did not see this in the manifestos.
Election campaign
The Conservatives made use of modern advertising techniques under the guidence of two professional publicity experts.
The Torries made use of photo ops that showed Thathcer doing everything from drinking cupst of tea to delivering a calf.
Labours campaign lacked the finner points of presentation.
The Conservative party outpolled the Labour party on party polling however 'Sunny Jim' Callaghan was 20 points ahead of Thatcher on head to head polling.
Callaghan attempted to have live TV debate with Thatcher, however she turned him down as it would show the differences between them (it was perfictlly acceptable as no TV debate had happened before).
The Conservatives ran the campaign line Labour isn't working to attack its failures on the strikes.
Wider political contest
The Labour government before the election had been very weak and had been relient on the support of nationalist parties to rule, this was withdrawn after the defeat of devolution referendums.
The vote of no conifdence was lost by just one vote, becuase Labour MP Sir Alfred Broughton was unable to vote because of ill health.
The winter of 78-79 was called the winter of disconent as the government attempted to put a 5% limit on pay increases which led to string of strikes.
When returning from a political conference in the Cariabean Callaghan refused to answer questions on the strikes and the Sun ran the headline "Crisis? What Crisis?".
The Labour government had won a small (3 seat) majority victory in the October 1974 election, but had slowly lost this small majority and acted as a minority government (like Major's decline between 92 and 97).
1997
Results
Labour win 418 seats with 43.2% of the popular vote (this is a seat increase of 145).
The Conservatives won 165 seats with 30.7% of the popular vote (a seat loss of 178).
The Liberal Democrats won 46 seats with 16.8% of the popular vote (a seat increase of 28).
This election saw the first win for the New Labour government and the formation of Tony Blair's first government with a majority of 179.
Turnout was 71.4%
Party policy and manifesto
Under Tony Blair Labour completed its movement from the radical left to the moderate New Labour position. In this New Labour dropped policies such as nationalistion, tax increases and stronger union legislation to attract middle class voters.
Blair also gave strong signals on law and order which had become important as crime rose in the 1990s. "
tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime
".
Labour provided some focus on constitutional reform which made it easier for Lib Dem voters to tactically vote for Labour, this was so successful it could have added 30 seats to Labours majority.
There was no major difference between New Labour and the Conservatives under John Major.
Election campaign
New Labour ran a proffessional vote winning machine under the leadership of Alister Cambell.
It employed public relations experts to handle the media.
Made use of extensive focus groups.
Targeted marginal seats, however Labour's vote share rose by 12.5% in target seats on average slightly lower then the 13.4% rise in neglected seats.
During the campaign Labour dropped in the opinion polls.
Wider political context
Labour could not have won the election without the damage the Conservatives inflicted on themselves after the 1992 election.
Turnout for the election was reletivly low at 71.4% and this meant that only 31% of registered voters in the UK actually voted Labour and this does not suggest a mass popular movement.
The economy was begining to recover from Black Wednesday (September 1), however, the voters did not credit this to the Torries.
There was no national feel good factor in 1997 as the economic recovery had not led to tax cuts or increased government spending.
Since autumn 1992 Labour were leading the polls as the Conservatives were no longer economically crediable.
John Major also attempted to launch the '
back to basics
' policy that would encrouge traditional family policies, however this was undermined by constasnt sleeze scandals including multiple sex scandals.
To add to the other problems the party was becoming more devided on the EU and this added to a snense of a weak government.
Major lost his 1992 majority durring the term after loosing a string of by-elections and MPs withdrawing support from the government (although John Gorst did maintian his whip).
2010
Results
The Conservatives won 306 seats with 36.1% of the popular vote (this is a seat increase of 96).
Labour won 258 seats with 29% of the popular vote (a seat loss of 90).
The Lib Dems won 57 seats with 23% of the popular vote (a seat loss of 5).
The Conservatives failed to win an absolute majority in parliament and was forced to form a coalition with the Lib Dems that had a majority of 77.
Turnout was 65.1%
Party policies and manifesto
All three main parties were united on the need to reduce the budget defecit. The difference was in the speed and severity of the cuts needed.
The Conservatives called for immediate cuts.
Labour and Lib Dems argued that immedaite cuts would endanger the recovery from the recession and instead cuts should be phased.
The Conservatives focused on the economy and in one poll 59% of people said that the extra money spent by Labour was a waste.
Election campaign
The 2010 election campaign can show the insignficance of election campaigns.
Durring the 2005-10 parliament the Conservatives launched a targeted policy of establishing candidates at a local level and market testing policies, however, they were still 20 seats off a majority.
At one point was picked up acciedently calling a voter "a bigoted women", however, the importance of this is minimal as he was already behind in the polls and Labour held Rochdale where the icident took place.
2010 was the first time there was a televised debate.
Durring these Brown came across as woodern and was mocked for frequently saying "I agree with Nick".
Nick Clegg saw a poll boost after an unexpectidly good performance in the first of the 3 TV debates, however, by polling day this had dropped off.
Wider political context
The choice of election date is simlar to that of the 1979 election as when Gordan Brown took office he encrouged speculation that he would call an autumn election to secure a mandate. When he decided not to call the election he was nicknamed Bottler Brown and his reputation never recovered.
He received little political credit for his actions during the 2008 financial crash and instead much of it was blamed on deregulation by New Labour.
In the media Brown was portrayed as a cantakourous, workaholic who could not present an immage for the future.
Polling
When asked who would be the most capable PM Cameron had a strong lead with 33% saying him and only 29% saying Brown.
Although behind in general on key leadership characteristics such as "who best understands the problems facing Britian" and "who would be best in a crisis" Brown was ahead.
It was clear from the polls then that this would not be a clean sweep election. In policy opinion polls the Conservatives still only led in areas of traditional Conservative suppoort such as the economy. However, in economy polling 36% (the pularity) of people asked selected no party on who would be best at running the economy.
How people vote
Evidence
Turnout
From 1997 to 2019 turnout has dropped from 71.4% to 67.3%.
Turnout was the lowest during the 2001 election when turnout was just 59%.
Northern Irleand has the lowest average turnout at just 63% between 1997 and 2017.
England tutnout varries from region to region with the SE (the wealthist) having a turnout of 68% in 2010 and the NW (one of the poorest) having a turnout of 62.6%.
In 2010 76% of over 65s voted whilist 44% of 18 to 24 year olds voted.
Ethnicity impacts turnout with 67% of white people voting comapred with 51% of ethnic minoirty voters in 2010.
Class voting
1979
Votting was very class defined.
59% of the middle class voted Conservative comapred to just 24% voting Labour.
49% of semi and unskilled working class people voted Labour compared with 34% who voted Conservative.
1997
Class played less of a role in the election
The Conservatives still won the pularity of middle class voters (39% compared with 34% for Labour), however this was a slim margin.
Labour won 50% or above of the votes with the skilled working class and semi/unskilled working class groups with the Torries winning less then 30% in both catagories.
2010
Class plays less of a role in voting
No party wins the majority of votes from any of the three groups, with the largest share being Labour in the semi/unskilled working class group winning 40% of the vote, the Conservatives were only 9 points off however.
2019
Class plays no role in voting
The Conservatives win a plurality of votes within all the income brackets with them winning their largest share of votes C2 and DE categories with 49% of the vote and 47% of the vote for each group (C2 and DE are the lowest social classes).
Gender
This plays nearly no role
as in each of the three election case studies the party has won the most seats has also won a pularity of votes from both men and women.
The only major difference in vote share between genders was in 1979 when the Conservatives recived just 3 points more votes from men than Labour did, but 12 points more votes from women.
In 2019 there was only a 2 point gep between the number of women voting Conservative (44% of the population) then men voting Conservative (46% of the population).
Older women are more likely to vote Conservative as in 2010 30% of women aged 18 to 24 voted Conservative while 42% of women over 55 voted Conservative.
Age
1997
Although Labour won in all three age catagories Labour's victory margins were greater in the 18-24 year olds group (22 point gap) and the 25-34 year olds group (21 point gap) then it was in the over 65 age group (5 point gap).
The Lib Dems votes were pretty much the same across the three age groups being split 16, 16, 17.
2010
Labour won the 18 to 24 year olds by 1 point (31% of the vote) with both the Conservatives and Lib Dems winning 30% of the vote.
In the 25-34 year old catagory the Conservatives won a 5point lead over Labour and a 6 point lead over the Lib Dems.
The Conservatives won decisivly in the over 65s catagory with 44% of the vote, Labour won 31% of the vote and the Lib Dems won just 16% of the vote.
Ethnicity
In 2010 60% of ethnic minority voters voted Labour compared with 16% who voted Conservative.
Theory
Class
Until the 1970s UK voters were strongly influenced by their social class background with working class voters voting Labour and middle class people voting Conservative.
This is called class voting
This was not exclusive and even durring this period many public sector workers who were middle class, like teachers, would vote Labour and many patriotic working class voters would vote Labour.
Class dealignment
Class dealignment
-- this is the process where indviduals no longer indentify themselves as belonging to a certian class and this leads to them not voting for the party of their social background.
This began to occur in the late 20th century
This was driven by changes in society:
Many working class people began to aspire upwards into the middle class.
Under Thatcher the right to buy policy increased levels of working class home ownership (at least in the upper-working class) which drove support for the Conservatives.
Decline in the highly uniosed heavy industry and a rise in the little unionised service industry.
It is still slightly true that those on lower income scales
Partisan dealignment
Partisan dealignment
-- this is the process in which people no longer indenitfy themselves on a long term basis as being associated with a certian political party.
This has been caused by:
Decline in attachement to the two major political parties.
People being less liekly to work in the same industry for their whole lives.
Improving education.
Governing competency and voter choice
Rationl choice theory
Rational choice theory
-- this is the idea that voters behave like consumers as thye decide how to vote on the basis of what is most benefitial for them.
Flaw
It is problamtic as it assumes that the voter will make rational choices based upon a knowledge of party policy.
A refiened version of rational choice theory is the idea that voters do not decide how to vote on the basis of detailed party policy, but by questions such as:
"which candiate would be best PM"
"who is expected to manage the economy well"
"who will provide the best quality public services"
Economic voting model
This is the idea that voters are most likely to support a political party/government if they have managed the economy well or if they believe that parties policies will make them and their family wealthier.
Factors that will influence voters when using this model include:
Inflation
Unemployment
Interest rates
Taxation
The 'feel good factor' or whether the public feel the economy is going well.
'Presidentialistion' of elections
Presidentialistion of elections
-- this is the idea that elections are becoming more similar to US elections and people are more focused on the leading figures of a party then its policies.
This has been driven by photo ops and TV debates.
Age, gender, ethnicity and region
Age
Older people typically vote Conservative as they have assets to protect and they have become less likely to vote with the aspiration of fundamentally changing society.
Older people are also more likely to vote then younger people. This is partly driven by the alienation of younger people from a political system.
Ethncity
Ethnic minorities are more likely to vote Labour as it has histroically been more focused on multi-culturalism, this is also linked to class as their is a disportionate number of BAME people in working class jobs.
People from Asian descent are more likely to vote Conservative then those of African descent partly because of Conservative support for small businesses.
Gender
Historically women have been slightly more likely to vote Conservative then men.
The Blair years saw a small change with an increase in the number of younger women (who were more likely to be in employment) voting New Labour.
Region
There is strong regional bias in voting.
Voters in the South are more likely to vote Conservative and Lib Dem (all none city south west seats are Conservative or Lib Dem).
Tradiationally Labour was dominate in the North (so called 'Red Wall'), however in 2019 Labour was knocked out of the Red Wall.
Region slightly impacts turnout with turnout in the SE and SW being slightly higher then in the NW.
Infleunce of the media
Role of media and its impact
Newspapers
Newspapers (both physical and digitil) still play an important role in news circulation, despite circulation numbers dropping.
In 2015 the two largest newspapers (The Sun and the Daily Mail) both backed the Conservatives and only two (The Gardiaun and the Daily Mirror) supported Labour (combined these two had a circulation of less then 1m and less then the Daily Mail).
Television
This dominates the media's coverage of the elections and is one of the most important means by which voters obtain infomation on elections.
Since 2010 there have been live TV debates, but the viewship has been dropping (it has picked up in 2019).
2010
-- 9.6 million people watched the leaders debate.
2015
-- 7 million people watched the ITV debate.
2017
-- 3.5 million people watched the debate, but it did not include the PM Thersa May who had deputised to her Home Secreatry Amber Rudd.
2019
-- 6.7 million people watched the ITV debate.
Opinion polls
Polls
-- these are attempts to gauge the popularity of political parties by asking groups of people who they intend to vote for.
Opinion polls aren't always acurate as shown in 1992 when polls predicated a narrow Labour in and not a narrow Conservative win.
Inacuracies in polls maybe due to the 'shy Tory' affect.
Shy Tory
-- these are people who will vote Conservative, but will not say so when asked.
Exit polls are reletivly acurate as in the past three elections they have managed to predict the seats for the Conservatives to within 15 seat accuarcy.
Changes in media type
Internet
The internet has become more important as it has become prevailent throughout society (between 2000 and 2010 the number of households with the internet increased from 26% to 82%).
Most MPs have their own webistes and so do political parties, interest groups and local political parties.
The internet is playing a bigger and bigger role in news as most major newspapers and channels have their own online presecence. This is mixed with the growth of solely online, smaller news companies.
This is enabling better communicaton with younger voters.
In 2015 79% of 18 to 24 year olds said they relied alomost totally on online sources of news, while 59% said depended on social media to discover other opinions on politics.
Social media
Since the rise of social media it has become more and more important.
Political parties and interest groups have social media accounts on most sights so that they can enage with the public.
Parties are spending more on advertsing on social media.
In 2015 the Conservatives spent £100,000 on Facebook advertising and in 2019 they spent more then doubled that (£211,000) on Google Ads alone.
Changing media types are mainly impacting younger people (and they don't vote) and older people still rely on the traditional media and the views of colluminists/comentators.
Political parties are becoming more and more away of the importance of portraying a good image.
New Labour were poineers of this with the use of 'spin doctors' who aimed to present the government in the best light.
Cameroon was infleunced by the desire of ministers to go on TV to further their exposure and his own desire to sideline indepedent minded ministers who may 'misspeak'.
Nowadays speeches are given to the press before they are given.
Debates around bias and persusaion in the media
Media in a democractic society
Free media is crucial for holding governement to account, espically when the parliamentry acountability is weak (due to the government having a large majority).
Fears
Media can provide an oversimplified version of the truth.
Newspapers are focused on driving circulation numbers, meaning they are more likely to run stories that are profitable (even if they are not the most important issues).
Media bias and the political parties
The newspapers are notoriously partisan and will alter their alliegence in responce to changing circumancstances.
The Sun is very famous for changing its alliegence, when it started out as a newspaper is was a Labour supporting one, then in the mid-1970s it moved to supporting Thatcher (due to her hardline one trade unions, something the Sun's owner Rupert Murdoch supported). As John Majors government began to collapse in the late 90s the Sun returned to Labour. In 2010 after the finanical crash they returned to the Conservatives.
There is very little regulation for newspapers.
TV is much less partisan because of the BBC is a non-partisan news source (as enshrined in its charter) and this policy has been mostly adopted by other news sources.
The amount of time a party has for its election broadcasts depends on their voting strength and number of seats won at the last election.
Websites and social media (expect news agencies acounts) are not subject to control of their content and so are the most likely source of news to be biased.
Infleunce the media has on the public
It is unlikely that the press causes people to change their voting behavoiur instead newspapers are normally read by people who already agree with the news agencies bias.
However the popularity of different press sources may act as an indicator of who will win the election as the most popular newspapers in 2010 and 2015 backed the Conservatives.
The press can play a role in focusing the political debate on certian issues by talking or not talking about them. For example the press has focused heavily on illegal migration for a few years, making it a key area of debate nationally.
The role of television is also debateable, although 62% of people cited TV as the strongest infleunce in helping them form an opinion in the run up to the 2015 election, in 2010 Nick Clegg could not hold onto poll boost that came from his TV debate performances.
The TV can infleunce people's perception of leaders. In 2015 the news coverage of Jeremy Corbyn was highly critical of him as a person and of his politics.
It is fair to say that media acts more of an echo-chamber for political beliefs rather than a force to change them.