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9) Future Paths (5 scenarios for 2025 Visegrad) - Coggle Diagram
9) Future Paths (5 scenarios for 2025 Visegrad)
HUNGARY
battle of narratives: the 100 years war of Hungary: Horthy, Nagy, Kádar (1918, 19, 44,45, 56, 89)
Visegrad: Hungary did not feel isolated
ORBÁN
1998-2002: in government
smooth preparation for EU acceptation
2002: defeated by socialist
gradual change
1994: from liberal to right (underrepresented)
2006: defeated again - socialists won (MSZP)
austerity measures implemented after they won the election
2008/9 financial crisis: convinced him that there should be less liberal economy
win by a lie (14th pay, good eco) - record leaked - riots - Fidesz UP
deepening political divisions
2010:FIDESZ comeback
hybrid regime: System of National Cooperation"
"an exterally constrained hybrid regime"
formal existence of liberal constitutions without functioning properly
1st and olny completly developed HR in EU
EU ROLE
EU supporter: resources, money
legitimization
: H as a member of EU can only be a democracy
a systemic contraint
= EU has structurally constrained the regime (but not stopped)
2011: FUNDAMENTAL LAW (new constitution): new media law, retirement of judges
2014: unfail election: H non dem regime + dismantling constitutional sys of checks and balanes
eastern opening (H belongs to West, but should be open to East)
revolutionary power: populist, paradox: in power + blame the others, uequal conditions for polit. competition
3 pillary of policy change
forein eco relations: up EEU trade, alternative sources, olitical support...
FP: maintaining relatins with West +
go east - to gain leverage
ideology: illiberal state,decline of West - go east
hybrid regime (one - way process), illiberal democracy, no longer democracy
free elections (everyone can go and vote, no falsifications of results) but not fair (freedom of speech and press limited, governing party more resources to convice people)
Hungary + Poland
SEP 2018: EP vote with 2/3 majority on the Sargentini REport, initiating article 7 of the Treaty of EU
concerns regarding the constitutional and electoral sys, the independence of the judiciary, corruption, privacy and data protection, freedom of expression, academic independence, equal rights..
Dec 2017: EU Commission proposing to the Council to adpot a decision under Article 7(1) of the Treaty on EU
reaction to POlish judicial reforms (political control of the ruling majority) = NO JURIdiCAL INDEPENDENCE
serious ? about the effective application of EU law, from the protection of investments to the mutual recognition of decisions in areas diverse
why? - violating EU values (Article 2 TEU)
xH ( new media law, retirement of judges, lex-CEU)...
3 pillars:EU, NATO, relations with neighbours
EU view: idealistic, pragmatic, euro-sceptiscism, eurofears, disillusionment
04-10
: socialist governments, peaceful foreign relations... bad eco (excessive deficit procedure x H), 08-09: eco crisis
(E)CE: FIVE SCENARIOS FOR 2025 (2018)
3) SHOTGUN WEDDING
MIGRATION: reinforcement of EU external borders due to refugees from the outside + help to the countries of the refugee origin
EU project born out of crisis, political unity:investments in energy infrastructure + cyber security + * single digital market + investments in technologies
under external pressures, EU (including CE) becomes more integrated than ever
CE agrees not to block reforms and integration steps - CE becomes the new periphery of the EU and its political weigh in the union is greatly reduced
CRISIS 1
the source of the crisis will be located: EU helps with technical support
MOscow then make a massive disinformation campagin that blames West
EU + NATO will help the CE to regain control and stability
agressive push by Russian x Belarus / Ukraine
CRISIS 2
EU steps in with large bailout package - but in return expects Budapest, Warsaw, Prague to introduce euro by 2025
CE population undergoes massive pro-EU shift
global recession - centre hit hard
external pressures:
globalization, finance, technology, migration flows, climate change, insecure neighbourhood
4) CE SPRING 2.0
younger CE launch a movement creating a new political class + politics
= full integration in EU / NATO
CE going to be farer way from the West - failure of the development model in CE - major corruption scandals
epicentre of the political earthquake = POLAND
mobilization of youngsters - support from business, civil society, independent jounalist... demands to focuse on the triangle of new technologie, social justice, EU integration
Success in Poland will spark similar incarnations in CR, H, SR
setting in motion of developments
returns politics from a mere preservation of powper to actual policy - making for the development of CE
investigation of past corruption
full EU integration
end of stranglehold of politics on regional media and civil media
results: self-confident, forward-looking and pro-integrationist CE
2) CE FRACTURED
EU will gradually find its way out of its crisis (migration, refugees, eurozone, domestic + reginal security)
CE remain regretful of sweeping transformation they had endure after 89 + harbour grievances over having been colonised by Western capital, culture and politics
EU led by its core older members that will enforce democracy and rule of law standart = CE has to choose to stay / leave
contrast WEst x Centre will be more frequent and harsher whether there will be multi-speed integration or EU sanctions over illiberal regresses
POLAND
: crucial member of core EU despite its non-adoption of the EU
EU regains momentum but the 4 CE countries choose different paths and split the region
HUNGARY
: increasing political isolation, possible referendum HUNXIT, 2022 parliamentary elections
ČR
: possible CZEXIT referendum in 2020 (nope!) x
SR: instability of CR and H provides more funds for them
5) SECURITY VACUUM
EU + NATO will fail on their commitments to colelctively defend their members
(money)
CE further away from its Western allies + seeks help from external powers
the transatlantic security sys collapses
followed by divergent national strategies of survival, EU retreat from EU, Russian military build-up
Austria, France, GErmany, Italy - re-engage with Russia bilaterally
RUSSIA: geopolitical winner
- efforts to widen political division among Europeans and across the Atlantic through variety of means
biggest looser of this decline: CE
("betryal from the West")
POLAND will try to seek help from NATO - it fails - turn to BEijing (in hope of strong ally x Russia)
Hungary: turns to Russia
CR,SR: referendum on leavin NATO = narrowly YES
systematic tightening of government control over political processes and state admin, media and business, education and civil society
EU reluctance to invest in the continent´s political cohesion and collective security
1) TRIUMPH OF ILLIBERALISM
questioning EU institutions + policies + standards (Hungary, Poland)
increased s
ophistication of CE governments to bypass exiting norms and by mutual support
- vetos x punitive measures at EU levels
economic growth of CE outperforming the rest of EU (Russia, China..)
sovereignties and illiberal trend (CE politics) becomes mainstream across the EU
illiberal model 1x implemented in Budapest and Warsaw - possible spreading to the rest of EU
improved systematic coopeartion of EU-sceptics and illiberal standards across EU: FIDEZS (H) and PiS (poland)
EU project degrades until it constitutes little more than a free trade zone
ideal CE: democratic, prosperity, integration, peace
GLOBAL TRENDS, AMPLIFIED IN CE
disputes over borders and territories
surge of isolationism and nativism propelled right-wing populist and extremist to political prominance
Russian annexation of Crimea
demographic pressures
political rift CE x EU
migration from eastern neighbours, intercontinental migration pressures will increase
generational conflict
(status quo x contemporary politics)
humanitarian disasters, state failures, organized crime, saturation of energy and trade
the west is more divided and uncertain of its role (non-EU autocracies can exploit it)
technological advancements + digital revolution
options xxx inequalities (uneven access)
disinformation - polarization - post truth era
end of liberal certainty
transformation of democratic politics:
Internet, fading of post-war memory, polarization, weaking of social trust and capital
western instituions and global multilateralism weakened
rise of neo-liberal regimes
vulnerable to eco shocks and changes, strong social and political repercussion associated
TRIPPING POINTS IN CE FUTURE
(events, actions, policies, personalities...)
relaunching of EU project: EU must prove that it has adjusted its politics and instituitons to prevent a return of the crisis
new migration crisis, eco recession, security crisis provoked by Russia, regime change in Russia
BREXIT
soft and satisfactory - impulse of EU scepticism x hard brexit (mute exit temptation in the region)
death of a key political leader, natural disaster, public emergency, breakdown of world trade, war USA x China, techno breakthroughs
EUs responses to illiberalism
political and financial sanctions
punitive action from shaming to loss of EU voting rights to cuts in EU funding
withdrawal of the US from EU security
without EU alternative - EC threatened and seek non-EU bilateral alliances
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS CE IN 2025
positive messaging should taret the populace in the reaming non-eurozone countries in CE
becoming a digital super-power
innovation, research, development, digital single market policies
private investors and public funds related to innovation and digitalization shoould be monitored and ranked for their efficiency as well as transparency
disinforamtion + cyber threats
EU needs to reestablish its legitimacy and effectiveness
civil society at risk
media, EU eduaction, engagement with sub-national, regional, local lvls of CE societies needed
external support for civil society in CE must be strengthened
taking seriously CE (investment + understanding)
new groups, new members:enlargement + support + x resurgent nationalism
serious reappraisal of EU security
CE unconditional support of NATO
NATO engagement could be informed through campaigns and regular trainings to prepare the general public for crisis and emergency sit
NATO mediation and political pressure should be stepped up
EU sharing NATO burden
PESCO: the EUs new framework for defence cooperation must advice swiftly
article 42.7 should be turned more fully into an EU equivalent of NATOs ARticle 5
further expansion of EU multinational forces is needed + EU investments in critical infastructure
EU comitted to the EU common energy policy principles and support diverzification efforts
EU / USA need to offer appealing alternatives if they want to limit Chinese and Russian investments in EU
ECE - what is happening?
rise of illiberal democracy, resurgent nationalism
developing technologies and change of demographics
post-CW era (25r) of democratic refrom / socio-eco development / Western integration/ stability / security is coming to an end
EU / NATO = uncertain future
geopolitics: return of Russian aggressivness, Western reluctance and chinese advances