Please enable JavaScript.

Coggle requires JavaScript to display documents.

1994, 2007, 2021, 2019, 2000, 2020, 2022, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2008, 2009,…

- - - - 1989-1992
  - - - Mon 19 Oct 1987
      - Triggers
        
        Liquidity Crisis
        
        Cut Corporate Tax Benefits
      - Timeline
        
        UK
        
        Fri 16 Oct 1987
        
        FTSE 100 down 23%
        
        USA
        
        Mon 19 Oct 1987
        
        DJI down 22%
        
        Japan
        
        Tue 20 Oct 1987
        
        Hong Kong
        
        Mon 19 Oct 1987
        
        Hang Seng Index down 45.8%
        
        UK & US opened late
        
        Japan closes market 4 days to cushion crash
        
        Preface
        
        Aug 1987
        
        DJIA up 69% YTD
      - DJI down 22%
- - - - Dem.
    - - Rep.
    - - Rep.
- - - - Summer 1990
- - - - Government Bailout
      - Mortgage Failure
- - - - Sep
        
        Hiring Boom EVERYWHERE esp. tech, retail & restaurants
        
        Consumer Spending at ATH
    - - Nov
        
        Fed announce 3 rate hikes per year for 2022-24
        
        Fed Projected Mean Real GDP 5.5%, 4%, 2.2%, 2% (2021-24)
        
        Biden $1.3T stimulus bill signed ~ 10 months later
        
        Feds Expectations: Strong Economy
        
        Inflation would rise from:
        
        wage increase
        
        low unemployment
        
        Feds Reality: Inflation rise
        
        Supply constriction
      - Dec
        
        Feds buy back $60mill bonds monthly/ Start Jan. 50% of Nov buyback. Down 30% ($30bill less) than Dec buyback.
        Aka tapering off.
        Aka no longer putting cash in the markets.
        Constriction policy. // tightening policy Monetary
        
        Highest consumer price inflation in 39 years
        
        Flexible Average Inflation Targeting
        
        above or around 2%
        
        Febs plan to end QE by spring (Mar?)/
        Post which interest rate hikes.
    - - Jan
      - Feb
      - Mar
  - - - Dec
        
        Cooling Measure Hot Real Estate
        
        Increase Stamp Duty
        
        Citizens 5-10% Foreigners 20-25% Corporate 25-30%
        
        Preventative measure destabilization
      - Nov
        
        Jack Dorsey appoints Parag Agarwal as Twitter CEO. Dorsey to focus on blockchain world via Square Inc., renamed Block Inc.
  - - - May
        
        Delta variant #2 takes over by storm speeding up 2nd vaccine shot movement across the world - market pullback in fear
    - - Nov
        
        Omicron variant #3 by SA, Botswana takes over UK and raises alarms - market pullback in fear
      - Dec
        
        BoE Rate Hike 25bp - 1
  - - - Jul
        
        Evergrande 14% Shares Slump as threat of default
  - - - Sep
        
        Federal Elections
    - - Nov
        
        Coalition government agreement made : Olaf new chancellor
        
        Germany is new covid epicenter
  - - - Sep
        
        Hiring BOOM esp restaurants
- - - - Dec announce that by Spring it will end. Post which expect rate hikes.
- - - - Aka ST Interest Rate is LARGER than LT Interest Rate
      - Often an indicator of recession
      - Doubts whether this causation remains valid in new era
- - - - Apr
      - May
        
        13 May US Treasury Security YIELD CURVE INVERTED
      - Jun
    - - Jul
      - Aug
        
        1 Aug Federal Fund Rate cut by 25bp - 1
      - Sep
        
        19 Sep Federal Fund Rate cut by 25bp - 2
    - - Oct
        
        11 Oct Yield Curve reverted to NORMAL
        
        31 Oct Federal Fund Rate cut by 25bp - 3
      - Nov
        
        Manufacturing slowdown
      - Dec
    - - Jan
        
        30 Jan WHO declares covid outbreak (Public Health Emergency)
        
        Yield Curve inverts again
        
        High Levels of Consumer Spending
      - Feb
        
        Lowest recorded unemployment rate 3.5%
      - Mar
        
        Black Mon 9 - 20 Mar Covid Market Crash
        
        Wed 11 Mar WHO Declares COVID-19 pandemic
        
        3 Mar Drop Federal Fund Rate by 50bp
        
        16 Mar Federal Fund Rate cut by 100bp
        
        8 Mar Oil Price War
  - - - Apr
      - May
      - Jun
    - - Jul
      - Aug
      - Sep
    - - Dec
      - Nov
      - Oct
    - - Jan
        
        1 Jan declare COVID-19 outbreak (Public Health Emergency)
      - Feb
      - Mar
  - - - Brexit
- - - - Apr
        
        GDP average hit
      - May
        
        Stimulus package injected ~$1600
        
        George Floyd BLM Riots I can't breathe
      - Jun
    - - Sep
      - Jul
        
        Moderna 2 Dose Vaccine Trials Begin Phase I/II
      - Aug
        
        Pfizer-BioNTech 2 Dose Vaccine Trials Begin Phase I/II
        
        Cases Peak
    - - Dec
        
        Moderna out with 2 dose vaccine FDA approval - 2nd place
        
        Pfizer-BioNTech awarded emergency use FDA approval - 1st place covid vaccine
      - Oct
        
        Covid Wave 2 => 7 months post wave 1
        
        Cases Peak
        
        8 - 10 or 29-30? Oct Market crash #2 from wave 2 fears
      - Nov
        
        US Elections (Trump/Pence v Biden/Kamala)
        
        Win Biden/Kamala Nov 3- 7 results counting
        
        Pfizer-BioNTech results 94% success rate mRNA vaccine
        
        Astrazeneca<>Oxford results 98% success rate
    - - Jan
        
        Jan 6 Capitol Hill Riots
        
        7 Jan Nancy Pelosi moves VP Pence to impeach President 25th Amendment
        
        13 Jan Trump Impeachment #2
        
        14 Jan J&J single dose vaccine trial results
        
        14 Jan Biden $1.3T stimulus package announcement
        
        Senate split 50-50 Dem to Rep Jan 6
      - Earnings
        
        EV Cannabis Financials do well
        
        PLUG, Flux, Fcell, AphaTlry, CGC, BoA, GS, Charles Schwab
        
        Hyperinflated P/E entire market
      - Feb
        
        Jeff Bezos promotes Andy Jassy (former AWS Head) to Amazon CEO
      - Mar
  - - - April
        
        Stimulus package injected
        
        GDP Tanks
    - - Aug
        
        Cases Peak
    - - Nov
        
        Cases peak
        
        Astrazeneca<>Oxford results 98% success rate
        
        Fears of Pfizer not conducive to India's weather. Needs to be transported in subzero containers. Eyes on Adar Poonavala for Covishield.
  - - - GDP Boom
    - - Block Ant IPO (Alibaba, Jack Ma)
      - Jan
        
        3 Jan Jack Ma Missing
  - - - Apr
        
        Stimulus package injected $2000
      - Jun
      - May
        
        Housing Market Soars Past All Time High - 1
        
        suburban sprawl due to lockdown constraints plus population density in urban zones
    - - Jul
        
        Lockdown finally lifted. Reopen stage 1
        
        Rental prices crash in GTA. Double income (tech) familities would rather pay for mortgage than rent.
      - Aug
      - Sep
    - - Oct
        
        Cases Peak
      - Nov
      - Dec
    - - Jan
        
        Covid Wave 2 peak is higher than Wave 1
        
        State of Emergency / Lockdown
      - Feb
      - Mar
        
        Housing Market Soars Past All Time High - 2
        
        Increased spending power, parking stock gains, crypto gains, foreign income, quantitative easing, wage increase, credit increase<>expense decrease (mortgage, rent, commute)
        
        Home mortgage rates as low as 1.1-1.4%
- - - - Reddit WallStreetBets versus Hedge Fund Whales
- - - - Covid outburst / incubation
  - - - Covid explodes
    - - nationwide lockdowns
    - - Wave 2
    - - Infections taper down with vaccination #1 drive
  - - - Antivax summer + 2nd vaccine drive
    - - Booster shot #3 - US/Canada
- - - - Liz Truss mini budget blow up
        
        LDI crisis
    - - 50bp hike
  - - - attacks Kyiv Ukraine on NATO application aggression
  - - - Inflation Reduction Act
      - Chips Act
    - - 400bp hike
- - - - expensive supply chain from covid
      - harsh weather
      - labour shortage
      - ukraine war ports blocked
- - - - GDP Slowdown
  - - - Dec
        
        Feds raise Fund Rate to 2.5%
  - - - Brexit Vote
- - - - By Ben Bernanke US Fed Chair
- - - - US Debt Ceiling Crisis
      - S&P downgrades US sovereign debt credit rating from AAA to AA+
  - - - Fear of European Union Sovereign Debt Crisis' would affect Spain & Italy
- - - - Feb
        
        Xi establishes 3rd term as Preisdent
  - - - Mar
        
        Credit Suisse
        
        buyout by UBS by government intervention
        
        crashes on low financial confidence
        
        Signature Bank
        
        assets sold to Firststar Bank
        
        sudden investor fund withdrawal
        
        Silicon Valley Bank
        
        assets under sale
        
        crashes on mark to market losses on securities
        
        First Republic :
        
        Large US Banks inject $30B of capital to keep afloat
        
        sudden investor fund withdrawal
        
        Biden budget
        
        wealth tax
        
        higher corporate taxes
      - Jan
        
        short covering risky equity rally
      - Feb
        
        economic data shocks to upside
        
        Nicky Haley announces Republican nomination
  - - - Labour strikes
        
        healthcare
        
        oil & gas
        
        train & public staff
  - - - labour strikes
        
        over increase of retirement age from 50 to 54
        
        nuclear plant workers
- - - - healthcare
      - industrials
- - - - Proportional to rise in Wholesale price
- - - - Inflationary pressure increase
      - Strong labour market
      - React by: Raising Borrowing Rate %