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Decision Making, Prehistory, Bayanin, Rikki Mae (2021-50082), :, Caingcoy,…

- - - - A problem is a discrepancy between an existing and desired situation. Managers must make sure that they tackle the root cause of the problem and not just the symptoms. Problems are sometimes subjective, because what one manager may consider a problem, another manager may not. The manager must have the authority, information, or resources needed to solve the problem.
    - - The factors or features that are essential to the decision-making organization are known as decision criteria. These should assist you in weighing your options.
      - Examples
        
        Costs that will be incurred (investments required)
        
        Risks likely to be encountered (chance of failure)
        
        Outcomes that are desired (growth of the firm)
        
        The firm’s values (basis on which decisions are made or justified)
    - - It's possible that not all the deciding factors are equally important. In the decision-making process, assigning a weight to each thing sets the items in the proper priority order of relevance.
    - - Alternatives to solving the problem are mentioned but not yet assessed.
    - - The decision-maker or decision-makers evaluate each alternative's strengths and shortcomings by giving a value based on how well it meets the criteria. The weight of the criteria multiplies the value allocated to each choice.
    - - The choice is made for the option with the highest overall weight. The option that best solves the situation would be the greatest option.
    - - In order to achieve commitment, the decision must be communicated to people who will carry it out.
    - - The solution to the problem determines the soundness of the conclusion. If the issue persists, the manager must consider the following: Was the problem defined incorrectly? Was the best option chosen but implemented incorrectly? If the problem persists, a rerun of previous steps may be necessary, but in other cases, the entire procedure may need to be redone.
- - - - Decisions that have been made before or that occur frequently enough for management to establish and execute decision rules that may be applied each time the decision is made. Standard Operating Procedures can help with some of these considerations. These judgments also apply to organized challenges in which managers have complete knowledge about the options and their outcomes.
    - - Unstructured issues are poorly defined, complicated challenges that occur under unusual and unclear conditions.
  - - - What are the long-term ambitions of your company?
      - What are the most effective techniques for achieving these goals?
      - What should the short-term goals be for the company?
      - What is the appropriate level of difficulty for specific objectives?
    - - How many direct reports should I have?
      - In your organization, how much centralization is appropriate?
      - What is the best way to create jobs?
      - When should a different structure be implemented by the company?
    - - What should I do about uninspired employees?
      - In a certain context, what is the most successful leadership style?
      - What effect would a certain modification have on worker output?
      - When is it appropriate to provoke a conflict?
    - - What are the actions that need to be monitored in the company?
      - What kind of controls should be put in place to keep these actions under check?
      - What is a major performance deviation?
      - What kind of management information system does the business need?
- - - - Ten Characteristics of a Wicked Problem
        
        There is no definitive formula for a wicked problem.
        
        Wicked problems have no stopping rule—there’s no way to know whether your solution is final.
        
        Solutions to wicked problems are not true or false; they can only be good or bad.
        
        You cannot immediately test a solution to a wicked problem.
        
        Every solution to a wicked problem is a "one-shot operation" because there is no opportunity to learn by trial and error—every attempt counts significantly.
        
        Wicked problems do not have a set number of potential solutions.
        
        Every wicked problem is essentially unique.
        
        Every wicked problem can be considered a symptom of another problem.
        
        There is always more than one explanation for a wicked problem because the explanations vary greatly depending on the individual’s perspective.
        
        The planner/designer has no right to be wrong and must be fully responsible for their actions.
- - - - Characteristics
        
        Clear-cut problem and goals
        
        Condition of certainty
        
        Full information about alternatives and their outcomes
        
        Rational choice by individual for maximising outcomes
  - - - Characteristics
        
        Inconsistent viewpoints; ambiguous information
        
        Bargaining and discussion among coalition members
        
        Pluralistic; conflicting goals
        
        Condition of uncertainty/ambiguity
  - - - Characteristics
        
        Satisficing choice for resolving problem using intuition
        
        Liited information about alternatives and outcomes
        
        Vague problems and goals
        
        Condition of uncertainty
- - - - make decisions quickly
      - consider only one or two alternatives
      - prefer simple, clear-cut solutions to problems
      - efficient and rational
      - prefer to rely on existing rules or procedures for making decisions
    - - carefully consider alternatives
      - base their judgment on objective, rational data from management control systems and other sources
      - consider complex solutions from the information they gather
      - search for the best possible decision based on the information available
    - - consider a broad amount of information
      - talk to people about the problem and possible alternatives for solving it
      - rely on information from both people and systems
    - - like to speak with people one-on-one understand their feelings
        about the problem and the possible effect of the decision on them
      - have deep concern for others and their personal development as individuals
      - try to make
        decisions that help other achieve their goals
  - - - the “best way” of making decisions differ from culture to culture
    - - a highly effective technique that produces a wide range of decision-making options
    - - Characteristics of effective decision-making process
        
        focuses on what’s important
        
        logical and consistent
        
        acknowledges both subjective and objective thinking; blends analytical with intuitive thinking
        
        requires only as much information and analysis as is necessary to resolve a particular dilemma
        
        encourages and guides the gathering of relevant information and informed opinion
        
        straightforward, reliable, easy to use, and flexible
    - - Habits of highly reliable organizations
        
        Not tricked by their success
        
        Defer to the experts on the front line
        
        let unexpected circumstances provide the solution
        
        embrace complexity
        
        anticipate but also recognize their limits
    - - Evidence-based decision making is a process founded on:
        
        commitment to examining potential biases
        
        seeking and examining evidence with rigor
        
        making informed and intelligent decisions
    - - bring a problem into focus
      - clarify people’s ideas
      - limit bias
      - create a broader understanding of
        issues and alternatives
      - improve decision quality
    - - Stop if it is clear that the solution you first thought would solve the problem isn’t
        working
    - - after-action review
        
        a disciplined procedure whereby managers review the results of decisions to evaluate what worked, what didn’t, and learn how to do things better
- - - - Anchoring
      - Curse of Knowledge
      - Confirmation Bias
      - Dunning-Kruger Effect
      - Belief Bias
      - Self-Serving Bias
      - Backfire Effect
      - Barnum Effect
      - Groupthink
      - Negativity Bias
      - Declinism
      - Framing Effect
      - Fundamental Attribution Error
      - Halo Effect
      - Optimism Bias
      - Pessimism Bias
      - Just-World Hypothesis
      - In-Group Bias
      - Placebo Effect
      - Bystander Effect
      - Reactance
      - Spotlight Effect
      - Sunk Cost Fallacy
      - Availability Heuristic
- - - - The Meeting of Minds
        
        Howard Raiffa explained how groups exploit external help (mediators and facilitators), Peter Drucker's regard on management as the main decision maker in what team to use
        
        Victor Vroom and Philip Yetton established situations appropriate for decision-making, R. Meredith Belbin defined components for successful teams.
        
        Irving Janis coined the term "groupthink." in 1972.
      - Thinking Machines
        
        Xerox PARC compared to technological Eden, but the comparable foundation for computer-supported decision- making has existed two decades earlier.
        
        Herbert Simon, Allen Newell, Harold Guetzkow, Richard M. Cyert, and James March were onto organizational behavior and the human brain, which were all alchemized with the creation of electronic computing.
        
        Marvin Minsky and John McCarthy produced early models of human cognition (AI intended to help researchers understand how the brain makes decisions and to augment decision-making processes)
        Over the next decades, managers applied technology to operational decisions.
        
        In 1990's, with the help of the Internet, custoers had more power where to buy from.
      - Scientific study of groups began in 1890
        
        Kurt Lewin's field theory relating to common goals and determined actions of society as a whole
        
        Mary Follett's value of conflict for integrated solutions with The New State: Group Organization-The Solution of Popular Government in 1918
      - The Romance of the Gut
        
        When it comes to people who utilized their 'guts' to make business-related decisions, Malcolm Gladwell, Gary Klein, Alden Hayashi, Howard Schlutz, and Robert Lutz, are some of the honorable mentions.
        
        Mintberg's research reveal the dominance of instinct and intuitive skills on success over analytical skills. Despite this, ideas about the reliability of trusting our guts is an unfinished discourse.
        
        Jack Welch describes his leadership style as "straight from the gut". Gut (emotional response) and Guts (nerve) according to Welch.
        
        Peter Senge also sums up the holistic approach in his The Fifth Discipline, where he holds that it is impossible for a master to choose between reason and intuition.
      - Improvement of decision making through sophistication with managing risk, nuanced understanding of human behavior, and technological advancements supporting mimic cognitive processes
        
        Gerd Gigerenzer's fast and frugal, Amitai Etzioni's humble-decision making,
        
        Hindu-Arabic system simplifying calculations causing philosophers to investigate the nature of numbers, Peter Bernstein's Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
        
        "Bounded reality" argument of Simon, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky identified factors affecting decision-making, Antonio Damasio's empirical breakwater with advance technology pinpointing emotion as a factor of decision-making
        
        Girolamo Cordano's probability and puzzles around games of chance, Luca Pacioli's problem of points, Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat's balla
        
        Daniel Bernoulli's far-reaching concepts of human capital
        
        Carl Friedrich Gauss's contribution to bell curve of normal distribution, Francis Galtron's concept of regression
        
        In modern times, derivatives, scenario planning, business forecasting are being employed by corporations
        
        Post World War II, Frank Knight distinguishes risk (knowable) and uncertainty (not knowable)
        Oskar Morgenstern and John von Neumann laid out game theory fundamentals
      - Foundation for study of Managerial Decision-Making laid by Barnard Simon, Minztberg, March,
      - Decision-making" coined by Chester Barnard
- - - - 399 BC
        
        In an early jury-trial decision, 500 Athenian citizens agree to send Socrates to his death.
        
        333 BC
        
        Alexander the Great slices through the Gordian knot with his sword, demonstrating how difﬁcult problems can be solved with bold strokes
        
        49 BC
        
        Julius Caesar makes the irreversible decision to cross the Rubicon, and a potent met- aphor in decision making is born
        
        Ninth Century
        
        The Hindu-Arabic number system, including zero, circulates throughout the Arab empire, stimulating the growth of mathematics.
        
        Eleventh Century
        
        Omar Khayyám uses the Hindu-Arabic number system to create a language of calcu- lation, paving the way for the development of algebra.
        
        Fourteenth Century
        
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      - Plato asserts that all perceivable things are derived from eternal archetypes and are better discovered through the soul than through the senses.
        Aristotle takes an empirical view of knowledge that values information gained through the senses and deductive reasoning.