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2.4 - Coggle Diagram

- - - - Slow economic growth and high inflation rates
- - - - Helps us to predict the future regardless of the accuracy (One future)
      - Examples
        
        Changing Budgets
        
        Changing Markets
        
        Key Economic Indicators
        
        Competition
      - Requires a detailed approach supported by evidence-based data
      - Focus on one scenario
    - - We think of predicting a number of potential futures
      - Less incremental and increasingly created
      - Pathways & alternatives
      - More defensive or reactive strategies
- - - - Weak signals are early signs of future trends or changes in the macro-environment
      - (A) In the technical domain, this would be similar to discovering early signs of material fatigue or hardly visible cracks.
        (e.g. Honda leaking problem was a signal)
      - Weak signals might b surrounded by high ambiguity
  - - - Single point forecast
        
        Confidence is high about one number
        
        Implies high degree of certainty
        
        Attractive to organisations due to simplicity of translation to budgets
      - Range forecasting
        
        Associated with a range of possible outcomes and less certainty
        
        Different outcomes are expressed with different degrees of probability
        
        Range from most probable to decreasing degrees of probability (Fan Charts)
      - Alternative futures forecasting
        
        Involves even less certainty