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Population, Demographic Transition Model, Case Studies, Demographic…
Population
Definitions
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Infant Mortality Rate
Number of babies who die before reaching 1 year old, per 1000 babies born alive in a year
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Total Fertility Rate
Average number of children each woman in a population would bear in her lifetime
Replacement Fertility Level
Number of children each woman needs to have to maintain current population levels
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Economic Development
- measure of a country's wealth and how it is generated
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Demographic Dividend
The accelerated economic growth that a country can achieve when it has a low dependency ratio
Trends
Family Size
Large in Africa, South Asia, small in DCs
Sex ratio
- More male : female in N. Africa, Asia
- Economic burden due to dowry system = provide money and purchase goods for groom's family
- Gender screening = abortion/infanticide
Ageing
- DCs: good economy, technology = greater life expectancy
Crude Birth Rate
- Lower in LDCs, in general decrease
Fertility Rate
- Overall decrease
- Highest in Africa
Life Expectancy
- General increase
- Lower in Africa (64)
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Population Pyramids
Graph used by demographers to study the distribution of people across sex and age categories
Shapes
Pyramid
- Rapid population growth
- Significant pre-reproductive age = boom
- Narrow top = low life expectancy :
Cup
- Narrow base = less young dependents + more post-reproductive = falling BR
Rectangular
- Even distribution = slow growth
- Replacing generation
Dependency Ratio
- Young dependents = 0-14
- Economically Active = 15-64
- Elderly Dependents = 65 and above
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Case Studies
France
Population Density
Low
Infrastructure
Lack efficient communication network (Corsica, 341554)
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GDP
Presence of services/commerce
Total in Paris = 30% of French GDP, encourages businesses to set up
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Population Pyramid
- Slightly pyramid to more cup shape, increase in dependency ratio
Family Policy 1990
- 3 years parental leave for mothers
- Return to same position/employer
- Tax breaks with children
Fertility Policy
- Limit contraceptive/abortion access
- Birth allowances for women
Healthcare system
- High quality maternity wards
- Pregnancy viewed as safe (98%/year born in maternity hospitals)
Consequences
Ageing Population
- 1/3 above 60 by 2025 + children
- Dependency ratio, productive/economic growth
Increased Cost of Living
- Increased demand for natural resources
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Russia
Population Density
High
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Location/Jobs
St Petersburg = coastal + along trading routes (53.64 million tonnes cargo = shipbuilding + operating machinery)
Low
Climate
Siberia: too cold + inhabitable (77% of land, only 23% of population)
GDP
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Natural Resources
- Khanty Mansiysk: 70% of Russia's oil fields
China
Population Pyramid
- Pyramid to Cup, unbalanced gender ratio
One Child Policy (prevented 400m births)
- 5 yuan reward/month
- One-child glory certificate
- Mandatory contraception, abortion, sterilisation
- Fines for violation (5-10 times annual income)
Healthcare (LE:43 in 1960 to 75 in 2013, IMR: 12.8-0.7%)
- 'Barefoot doctors' trained young chinese = affordable basic care in rural areas
Preference for sons (103-107:100)
Consequences
Ageing Population (17.3% above 60)
- 4-2-1 = economic burden, personal savings, retirement funds
Unbalanced Gender Ratio
- 30m more men than women
- women want financial stability = older men
Advantages
Standard of Living
- Tap water coverage (84-94%)
- Gas (16-73%)
- Birth insurance
- Workers compensation
Nigeria
Low Literacy Rate
- Birth control/spacing
- Lower education level = married early, child bearing period
Healthcare Improvements (LE: 40-52)
Emergency Operation Centres (2002)
- Centralised office = health experts from aid agencies
- Polio: decentralised disease control network + vaccine storage
Anti-natalist Policy (2004)
- Improve standard/quality of life + lower FR, population growth
- Unsuccessful: weak dissemination, disorganised implementation, against tradition
Consequences
Air Pollution
- Lack rails/subways
- Low oil price = more cars = traffic congestion
Poor Health
- Overcrowding = unhygienic
- Ripple effect = increased chances of new viral disease
- Spread quickly in slums = outbreak
Shortage of Resources
- Poor governmental management
- Contamination of water
- Disproportionately affects the poor
Demographic Dividend
- Frees household and state resources used by dependent groups --> invest = increased productivity
1st Dividend
- All successful + well-timed = increased income = economic dividend
Improve Health (esp of children)
- Increased child survival = families want to have less children = lower FR
- High survival rate in one cohort followed by less children in the following cohort = population bulge with large macroeconomic effects
Invest in Health and Education (following bulge)
- Government has more resources per child --> improves human capital
- Lower fertility rate = more women in workforce, labour supply
Economic Environment
- Productive, well-paying jobs
- low unemployment/low productivity
2nd Dividend
Bulge cohort
- Savings + investment
- Age --> finance retirement and health
Government
- Policies to promote savings
- Developed financial sectors --> attract savings + productive investments
Failure
Slow decline in Birth Rate
- Less resources per child = less investment in education and health
Unsuccessful Economic Reforms
- Highly productive jobs not created = no increase in income
Unsuccessful Financial Sector Reforms
- Savings not materialised in large enough amounts to drive investment
Case Studies
Vietnam
2 Child Policy in 1960s
- Allow abortions, contraceptives
- Punishments with fines
- BR: 6.5- 1.9, 1960-1980
- Young dependents stabilised at 23%
- Dependency ratio: 96.7-42.5, 1970-2015
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1980 Economic Reforms
- Free market
- Agriculture --> manufacturing economy
- Joined World Trade Org in 2007 = open to world and trade links
- Average more than 5% economic growth per annum since 1986
South Korea
Access to Family Planning + Population : Policy
Free Medical Insurance and Subsidised Healthcare (1977)
- Cover all by 1991
IMR 84/1000 in 1960 to 4/1000 in 2010
Education
- Production --> Knowledge-skill focused = economic development
- School going (54% in 1950 to 97% in 1990)
Economy
- Agriculture-based --> Technological-based (GDP/capita: 158.25 USD in 1960 to 31846.22 in 2019)
- Improved gender equality (116:100 in 1980 to 100.1/100 in 2020)
India
Start Up India (2016)
- Promote robust startup ecosystem
- Job creators instead of seekers
Improved ranking in World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index
Make in India (2014)
- Incentivise investments into manufacturing (esp. automotive + electronics)
- Encourage companies to manufacture there
- Foreign Direct Investments (increased to 22.89B USD in 2016)
National Health Protection Scheme
- Sponsored insurance for 500m people
Integrated Child Development Programme
- Food, preschool, primary healthcare, immunisation, referral for mothers with children under 6
- 54.1% of children benefitted
Establishment of Higher Education Finance Agency (2017)
- Free loans with varying repayment obligations
Failure
- 200m added to workforce
- Education, skill patterns, emerging economic structure incompatible
Youthful Population
Positive Impacts
Demographic
Population Momentum
- Pre-childbearing + childbearing
Economic
Lower Medical Cost (US: $11089 elderly, $3352 19-64)
- Resources for other sectors
Attractive to new investment
- Large potential market + workforce (revenue pool)
Negative Impacts
Social
Poor Quality of Life
- Insufficient infrastructure (schools, housing)
- Slums + unmanaged settlements (megaslums in Kibera, Nairobi)
High Crime Rate
- endemic poverty + unemployment
- Crime wave (Maras in Honduras - 50% under 19, S. Africa = high youth unemployment + crime rate)
Rise in Conflicts
- Free time + no money (civil wars in West Africa, 1990-2000s)
- Political exclusion + economic marginalisation (Arab Uprising in N. Africa)
Economic
Burden on Taxpayers
- State spending for youths (education)
Ageing Population
Negative Impacts
Social
Shortage of Housing (England with 520,000 units requireds extra 400,000 by 2035)
- Flats/retirement homes
- Expensive and less profitable
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Economic
Burden on Taxpayers (economically-active)
- Increased state spending (healthcare, care homes)
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Increased Revenue Spent on Elderly
- (SG, 2013 = spend 400m to build 10 nursing homes, 39 senior care centres, 56 senior activity centres
Political
Growth of Grey Power
- influence national policies in public spending
Shortage of Manpower for Defence
Positive Impacts
Social
Elder-friendly Environment
- Redesign urban areas = compact