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Cognitive Accessibility & Heuristics - Coggle Diagram
Cognitive Accessibility & Heuristics
Decision-Making
Framing Effects
Surgery or Radiation?
IV
: 90% survival vs 10% mortality
DV
: attitude toward surgery vs radiation
Results
: favorable to surgery when framed in terms of survival; unfavorable to surgery when framed in terms of mortality
Custody of Child
IV
: average parent vs extreme parent (good and bad)
DV
: award/deny custody of child
Results
: extreme parent (good and bad) awarded and denied custody
Conclusions
: reason-based choice
Save or Die?
IV
: 200/600 people will be saved vs 400/600 people will die
Results
: different reference/comparison points
DV
: choice between logically equivalent information
Judgment Heuristics
:
mental shortcuts
that enables a quick and intuitive answer to a problem
Availability
:
judgment of probability/frequency
based on the
ease
with which instances or occurrences can be brought to mind
Seven Letter Words
IV
: "
_
n_" vs "____ing"
DV
: estimate number of words
Results
: more words estimated in "____ing"
Conclusions
: judgment of frequency distorted by what information is most available in mind
List of Famous People
IV
: list contains more men, but women are more famous vs list contains more women, but men are more famous
DV
: more men or women in list?
Results
: judged to be more people from the famous category
Carter or Ford
IV
: imagine Carter or Ford having won
DV
: predict results of election
Results
: "imagined" candidate judged more likely to win
Conclusions
: recently active and vivid thoughts are more available and bias probability judgments
Medicine
: recently seen patients can bias judgment
Anchoring
: initially suggested (but irrelevant) piece of
numerical information
(the anchor) serves as an implicit standard of comparison which biases later judgment
African Nations in the U.N.
IV
: greater or less than... low anchor (10%) vs high anchor (65%)
DV
: % of African nations in U.N.
Results
: low anchor = 25%; high anchor = 45%
Conclusions
: initial anchor is accessible and biases later judgment
SSN & Physicians in Manhattan
IV
: greater or less than... anchor (SSN) vs no anchor
DV
: # of physicians in Manhattan
Results
: correlation between SSN and estimates = 0.4; correlation when anchor asked second = 0
Representativeness
:
judgment of probability/frequency
based on
similarity/representativeness
Neglect of Base-Rates
IVs
Representativeness
: how representative Tom W. to a typical student in each field?
Results
: correlation between likelihood & representativeness = 0.97
Conclusions
: over-reliance on a stereotype; discounting of base-rate information
Likelihood
: how likely Tom W. a student in each field?
Base-Rate
: % of students enrolled in each field
Results
: correlation between likelihood & base-rate = -0.65
Order of Births
Results
: judgment of frequency distorted by whether the sequence "fits with" or is "representative of" people's image of randomness
Representativeness + Availability
"No-Stats All Star"
Representativeness
: does not fit prototype
Availability
: less visible, less accessible things
Blind Auditions
Representativeness
: does not fit biased prototype
Availability
: sex is more accessible/available than true skill, and is easier to judge
Coin Tosses
Linda Problem
Results
: logical error;
conjunction fallacy
that specific conditions are more probable than a general one
Conclusions
: judgment of probability conflated with a judgment of representativeness
Sports
: judgments of future performance biased by fit of a player to a prototype
Cognitive Accessibility
: thoughts that spring to mind rapidly, effortlessly, and spontaneously;
intuitions