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Managing Uncertainty in Software Projects, Administración de Proyectos II …
Managing Uncertainty in Software Projects
Uncertainty
vs
Risk
Uncertainty
Uncertainty is much less susceptible to analysis: it is what is left behind when all the risks have been identified.
Uncertainty represents a threat that we cannot be sure what form it will take.
How it emerges?
It emerges in projects due to the inability to see signs that may affect project success.
In projects it can come from the experiences of the manager or team members because of facts such as lack of knowledge or the awareness of the relevant elements of a project.
Risk
Despite their fundamental usefulness in innovative software projects, the tools developed for risk analysis and management remain considerably primitive.
A risk can be identified.
Uncertainty and Risk Management
It is believed that uncertainty can be managed through risk management.
The success of risk management measures depends on how and when identified actions are implemented to combat negative impact, which in turn depends on how well uncertainty management strategies are applied
They are complementary approaches.
Research Method
The research method is based on EBSE (Evidence-Based Software Engineering Techniques)
Design Phase
The design stage involves executing primary and/or secondary studies to obtain an initial approach.
Steps
It was performed an exploratory literature review with the aim of identifying the basic concepts and main research sources in uncertainty management.
It was carried out an SLR (Systematic Literature Review) to obtain and analyse preliminary studies published in software project uncertainty management.
Once they had ascertained the state of the art project uncertainty management and analysed various strategies that have been adopted, it was necessary to analyse the use of these practices and their impact on a project. This third step took the form of action research (AR).
AR
To plan this, it was needed to choose a sample project that presented a major challenge to the comunity and in which technological and market innovetions were evident.
Conducted on
an innovative software project called "
Modelling and 3D Migration using Field-Programmable Gate Arrays
(FPGAs)"
Participants
They worked directly with project members, observing and adjusting strategies and techniques during fortnightly sprint cycles.
Evaluation Phase
It was conducted a series of semi-structured interviews to evaluate additional viewpoint, as well as the validity and importance of the proposed approach.
Steps
Develop a semi-structured interview protocol and set of questions to guide the interview.
Project managers were emailed with an interview request and informed about the research.
It was conducted a face to face interview will the participants using open-ended questions and analysed all data collected in a subsequent phase.
Key points from the data were collected and assigned codes.
Codes are characterised by evidence called quotes.
Participants
25 individual with professional or academic experience in project management.
In planning the focus group, it was stablished that the target audience for evaluating the approach´s structure should be professionals with experience in software projects and processes, and innovation projects.
Managing Uncertainty in Software Projects
Characterising Projects
Identifying project type to adopt appropiate management
Project management can be classified as:
Traditional (TPM)
Agile (APM)
Extreme (XPM)
Exploratory (EPM)
Analysing stakeholders
The project manager should identify all stakeholders and their interests and establish their importance to the project.
Defining success criteria
The project's success can be measured in different perspectives.
Client impact and satisfaction
Team impact and motivation
Efficiency and effectiveness
Commercial success
Preparing for the future
Identifying sources of uncertainty
Managers must verify the uncertainties remaining within a project by analysing the sources of uncertainty.
Technological uncertainty
Market uncertainty
Environment uncertainty
Socio-human uncertainty.
Consulting Past Projects
Consulting Past Projects
If lesson learned from past projects are properly stored with other project documents, a consultation can be conducted to reduce a current project's uncertainty.
Creating Cause and Effect Diagrams
Cause and effect diagrams, also called fishbone diagrams, provide means of capturing information.
Its objective is to reach the root of the problem by detailing its causes.
Building Scenarios
When constructing a scenario, the team moves directly to the desired scenario and traces its steps backward to discover how to arrive at the planned scenario.
Analysing the scenario can reveal a great deal about the sources of a project's uncertainty.
Mapping the Knowledge of Sources of Uncertainty
Building a knowledge map says nothing about specific uncertainties, but suggests whether they might exist. It is a method for identifying potential trouble spot.
Detecting Early Signs
Evaluating the use of mindfulness attributes.
To detect early warning signs of uncertainty in a project, managers must adhere to the concept of mindfulness.
Mindfulness can be established through five evidence based attributes:
Attending to concerns regarding failure.
Reluctance to simplify interpretations.
Operations sensitivity.
Commitment to resilience.
Skill considerations.
Checking early warning sign groups.
During project cycle, managers can make use of the early warning sign group as a guide.
Sensemaking
Interpreting the signal
When detecting an early sign of uncertainty, the manager must analyse the context of the project. They must know the project and all its variables and build meaning that considers the team's information.
Objectively translating the sign
The manager must be clear in presenting the sign to the team, to translate it into actions that make sense for all project members
Revealing assuptions and beliefs
Each team member's previous experiences and personal competences must be considered; however, the project manager must identify team members who are not able to let go of past experiences, assuptions, beliefs or trauma.
Building a shared meaning
The expected result is a meaning which must be accepted by the team.
Managing Risks
If the early signs of uncertainty are detected, and a sense for them is created, strategies can be used to contain the uncertainties.
Responding to Unexpected Results
Finding strategies for confronting the event
Project managers may try to contain uncertainty at its source, but can never be completely successful. A project requires strengh, and its team should be able to detect and respond quickly to unexpected events.
Responsiveness to change
Change almost involves elements of uncertainty and opportunity. When the team is part of planning and transition, they tend to feel more in control of the situation, resisting changes less.
Learning from unexpected results
Some practices may be adopted to reduce the impact and ease reactions to an unexpected event. The team must be willing to learn and formulates new ideas for generating knowledge.
Proactive Strategies and Practices to Reduce Uncertainty
Short Iteration
Continuos Integration
Prototyping
Stakeholder involvement
Creativity
Brainstorming
General Orientation for Software Project Managers
Managers facilitating self-organisation and team adaptability
Self-organising teams are organised in relation to the work that must be done, they create their own rules and make local decisions. However, this teams have a leader that gives them direction and acts as a source of inspiration and as a coach who manages the team to create an environment in which all members feel empowered.
Building trust between the team, management and client
When people work together towards common goals, exchanging information and knowing each other well, they build trust.
Management flexibility
For a project to succeed, flexibility is necessary: one must always adapt one's management style to the environment.
Managing the expectations of stakeholders
Knowing the client is one of the most critical issues that any software project manager faces.
Managers facilitating comunication within the organisation
Project managers should be able to make themselves understood by those involved in the process, sharing information needed for planning, management, control and coordination of project operations.
Collaboration
Teams that know to work collaboratively establish important connections that are reflected in the organisation.
Multidisciplinary work
Experts from multidisciplinary specialties working together help create differentiated alternatives and phase out uncertainties.
Group cohesion
Constructive attitudes are much more likely to lead to constructive results.
Creating flexible contracts
For projects to succeed, managers must be able to negotiate with technical specialists and all involved managers about resources, priorities and responsibilities
Conclusions
Contribution
Several approaches to project management do not consider the impact of uncertainty.
Uncertainty management for software projects uses a proactive mentality with a set of strategies and guidelines that address the attitudes and behaviours of projects and their members.
Validity and reliability
The validity of a study denotes the trustworthiness of its results, the extent to which the results are true and unbiased by the researchers subjective point of view.
Limitations
Internal validity:
Each interview transcript and notes from the AR were faithfully represented in answers or comments in the study.
Reliability:
Reliability is related to the extent to which research findings can be replicated, whether by the same or other researchers.
External validity:
This topic addresses the transparency of tested instruments and protocols.
Problem
Assumption
The use of an approach that orients managers and staff to managing uncertainty and that supports software projects may be a determining factor in project success.
Question
How can uncertainties in software projects be managed?
Background
Successful projects increase sales, reduce costs and improve quality, customer satisfaction and the work environment.
An increasing number of companies use project management as a key strategy for maintaining competitiveness and increasing the value potential of their business.
Despite these measures, many projects expected to suceed still fail, possibly because of the failure to analyse uncertainties.
Results
and
Discussion
Systematic Review Results
Systematic Review Results
The SLR revealed 5 ways to reduce uncertainties in software projects:
Adopting strategies and techniques to facilitate uncertainty reduction.
Adapting management style to project type.
Dealing with uncertainty as they arise.
Understanding uncertainty sources to better manage each project type.
Identifying uncertainties, to then turn them into risks.
Action Research Results
The project team, project manager and researchers agreed to use 8 practices:
Identifying the project type to adopt appropiate management.
Managing the expectations of stakeholders.
Identifying early signs of uncertainty.
Sensemaking.
Building trust between the team, management and customers.
Project managers incorporating the investigation of uncertainties in projects.
Creativity techniques.
Collaboration.
During the AR, some practices of project management that can help with uncertainty management are:
Brainstorming
Prototyping
Continuous integration
Scenario building
Short interactions
Risk management
Semi-structured Interview Results
Since it was aimed to manage uncertainties in software projects, the network´s central concept is
uncertainty management
.
The SLR introduced as a
success dimension
the ability to formulate qualitative measures of success, which was identified as necessary for all projects, and evidence was found in participants'speech.
A new strategy that emerged from this step is
project characterisation
, which was distinguished as necessary by the 25 managers.
The SLR introduced as a
success dimension
the ability to formulate qualitative measures of success, which was identified as necessary for all projects.
Related to the need to detect early warning signs, the network depicts attributes to detect early signs.
Related to the need to detect early warning signs, the network depicts
attributes to detect early signs
.
Four
sensemaking
activities allow for the detection of subtle problems:
Interpret signs
when mindfulness indicates it is necessary.
Be synthetic, rationalise and clearly, plactically and operationally
objectively translate signs
.
Reveal assuptions and beliefs
that may affect the team's approach to the project.
Build a shared meaning
that aligns all information and shared knowledge.
Body of Knowledge
Administración de Proyectos II
Lectura # 4 - Mapa Mental
Carmen María Mok Zheng