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INTERNATIONAL FINANCE Chapter 7 International Arbitrage And Interest Rate…
INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
Chapter 7 International Arbitrage And Interest Rate Parity
Chapter Objectives
the conditions that will result in triangular
arbitrage and the realignments that will follow.
the conditions that will result in covered
interest arbitrage and the realignments that will follow.
the conditions that will result in locational
arbitrage and the realignments that will follow.
the concept of interest rate parity.
the variation in forward rate premiums across
maturities and over time.
International Arbitrage
Defined as capitalizing on a discrepancy in quoted
prices by making a riskless profit.
Arbitrage will cause prices to realign.
Three forms of arbitrage
Locational arbitrage
Triangular arbitrage
Covered interest arbitrage
Locational Arbitrage
Defined
process of buying a currency at the location where it is priced cheap and immediately selling it at another location where it is priced higher
Gains from locational arbitrage
are based on the amount of
money used and the size of the discrepancy.
Realignment due to locational arbitrage
drives prices to adjust in different locations so as to eliminate discrepancies.
Defined
to capitalize on discrepancies in the cross exchange rates between two currencies.
Gains from triangular arbitrage
Currency transactions are conducted in the spot market to capitalize on the discrepancy in the cross exchange rate between two countries.
Accounting for the Bid/Ask Spread
Transaction costs (bid/ask spread) can reduce or even eliminate the gains from triangular arbitrage
Realignment due to triangular arbitrage
forces exchange rates back into equilibrium
Defined
as the process of capitalizing on the interest rate differential between two countries while covering your exchange rate risk with a forward contract.
Consists of two parts
Interest arbitrage:
process of capitalizing on the difference between interest rates between two countries.
Covered
hedging the position against interest rate risk.
Realignment due to covered interest arbitrage
causes market
realignment
Timing of realignment
may require several transactions before
realignment is completed.
Realignment is focused on the forward rate
forward rate is likely to experience most if not all of the adjustment needed to achieve realignment.
Accounting for spreads
Investor must account for the effects of the spread between the bid and ask quotes and of the spread between deposit and loan rates.
Covered interest arbitrage by Non-U.S. investors
applies to any two countries for which there is a spot rate and a forward rate between their currencies as well as risk-free interest rates quoted for both currencies.
The threat of locational arbitrage
ensures that quoted
exchange rates are similar across banks in different locations.
The threat of triangular arbitrage
ensures that cross exchange
rates are properly set.
The threat of covered interest arbitrage
ensures that forward exchange rates are properly set. Any discrepancy will trigger arbitrage, which should eliminate the discrepancy.
arbitrage tends to allow for a more orderly foreign
exchange market.
How arbitrage reduces transaction costs
Locational arbitrage
limits the differences in a spot exchange
rate quotation across locations
covered interest arbitrage
ensures that the forward rate is properly priced. Thus, an MNC’s managers should be able to avoid excessive transaction costs.
In equilibrium
forward rate differs from the spot rate by a sufficient amount to offset the interest rate differential between two currencies
Derivation of Interest Rate Parity
Determining the Forward Premium
Effect of the interest rate differential
relationship between the forward premium (or discount) and the interest rate differential according to IRP
Implications
If the forward premium is equal to the interest rate differential as just described, then covered interest arbitrage will not be feasible
Graphic Analysis of Interest Rate Parity
Points representing a discount: points A and B
Points representing a premium: points C and D
Points representing IRP: points A, B, C, D
Points below the IRP line: points X and Y
Investors can engage in covered interest arbitrage and earn a higher return by investing in foreign currency after considering foreign interest rate and forward premium or discount
Points above the IRP line: point Z
U.S. investors would achieve a lower return on a foreign investment than on a domestic one.
Test Whether Interest Rate Parity Holds
location of the points
provides an indication of
whether covered interest arbitrage is worthwhile.
points to the right of the IRP line
investors in the home country should consider using covered interest arbitrage, since a return higher than the home interest rate (ih ) is achievable.
investors and firms take advantage
of such opportunities, the point will tend to move toward the IRP line.
Covered interest arbitrage
should continue until the
interest rate parity relationship holds.
Interpretation of Interest Rate Parity
Interest rate parity does not imply that investors from
different countries will earn the same returns.
Does Interest Rate Parity Hold
Compare the forward rate (or discount) with interest rate quotations occurring at the same time. Due to limitations in access to data
Considerations When Assessing Interest Rate Parity
Transaction costs
Political risk
Differential tax laws
Triangular Arbitrage
Covered Interest Arbitrage
Comparison of Arbitrage Effects
Interest Rate Parity