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Macroeconomic Evidence on the Effects of Financial Globalization…
Macroeconomic Evidence on the Effects of Financial Globalization 金融全球化影响的宏观经济证据
The main conclusion
the evidence based on cross-country regression frameworks has been inconclusive
Effects on Growth
总：Although there are
some shortcomings
, there is
hope
that this method can better detect the growth effects of financial integration.
financial globalization is
not a necessary condition
for achieving a high growth rate 金融全球化并不是实现高增长率的必要条件
financial integration is also
not a sufficient condition
for rapid economic growth 金融一体化也不是经济快速增长的充分条件
结：that
declining economies
are in general more likely to be
financially closed
, though the direction of causality
is not clear
尽管因果关系的方向尚不清楚，但总体而言，衰退的经济体更有可能在财务上关闭
Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal 重新评估
3a
if financial integration has
a positive effect on growth
, it is apparently
not robust
稳健
There is
no systematic relationship
between these variables
3b
a weak positive association
between average GDP growth and the change in the financial openness measure
But once
other growth determinants are controlled
for, even this relationship
vanishes
补充：the results
differ
markedly across studies -
the sample period, country coverage, and choice of empirical methodology
all make a big difference
Compare the impact of financial integration in different countries on growth (no effect/ mixed/ positive)
capital account liberalization tends to have
a positive impact
in all groups of countries -
advanced, emerging market and other developing economies
资本账户自由化往往对所有国家组别--先进国家、新兴市场和其他发展中经济体--产生积极影响
Regardless of whether macro data or micro data is used, it is difficult to make a strong causal statement about the direct impact of financial globalization on GDP growth 不管使用宏观数据还是微观数据，很难对金融全球化对 GDP 增长的直接影响做出强有力的因果陈述
Capital account liberalization is considered to be the direct cause of the crisis in emerging markets, but there is little evidence to support the view that capital account liberalization will increase crisis vulnerability.资本账户自由化被认为是新兴市场经历危机的直接原因，但几乎没有证据支持资本账户自由化会增加危机脆弱性的观点。