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Fooled By Randomness 随机漫步的傻瓜 Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Coggle Diagram
Fooled By Randomness
随机漫步的傻瓜
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
V2.Monkey ahead the typewriter
--Survivor bias & others
Ch10.Non-linear phenomena in life /
Sand-pile effect
/ path dependent outcome /
Circular effect
/ Buridan's donkey(nonlinear nudge)
Ch11.We are probability blind / Probability of survival / Joint probability / un-/conditional probabilities /
Confidence level
/ E&B
Ch8.Too many rich men next door /
The Millionaire Next Door / Double bias
Ch9. B&S securities is easier than fried eggs /
Survivor deviation / Data mining / Data snooping
/ Overfitting / Regression to the mean /
Adverse selection
Preface: Anyone can buy and sell / Random Trap
Introduction:
Lucky Trader
Noise vs Meaning / vice versa / Confuse Table
Lucky vs Technology
V1.Black Swan Inciden
Solon’s warnings:
Skewness, asymmetry, induction
Ch7.The problem of induction /
Soros & Popper
/ Muller's Black Swan / Soft science /
Stop loss / Risk discovery
Ch4.Randomness and scientific intellectuals /
Deductive and inductive / Concerns of daily life
Ch2.Strange settlement method /
Russia Roulette / denigration of history
/ false positive(negative)
Ch1.Randomness of making money /
Snoozing on the rails
/ Picking up coins in front of the roller /
Survivorship bias
Ch3.Thinking about history from the perspective of mathematics /
sample path
/ stochastic processes /
random run / ergodicity
Ch5.Can the most uncomfortable survive /
Assimilation effect
/ Computational Finance /
Ch6.Skewness and asymmetry /
Probability Expectation
/ The Median is Not the message /
Time series
/ Rare event /
Crisis hunter
V3.Live in a random world
Path dependence
Ch12.The gambler's superstition and the pigeon in the cage /
Misunderstanding of causality / Independence of things
/ Skinner's experiment
Ch14.Take control of random phenomena /
Grace under pressure
/ Letters From a Stoic
Ch13.Probability and skepticism /
Eliminate path dependence / Calculate instead of thinking
Books
Probability and Mathematical Statistics
Random Walk Theories
《Treatise on Probability》by Cairns