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A look to the Electricity Generation from Non-Conventional Renewable…
A look to the Electricity Generation from Non-Conventional Renewable Energy Sources in Colombia
INTRODUCTION
RES are growing faster and faster in the power generation sector
Industralized nations
In developing countries the energy demand increase
Goverments played a significant role
Promote the renewable energy market
Colombia needs to diversify its electricity mix
NCRES currently account for only 0.7% of energy generation capacity
Objective
Make a forecast of the increase in electricity generation from NCRES by 2020 in three scenarios
Compare the results with the forecast made by UPME in 2015
The Colombian Electricity Sector
NCRES account only 2% of the EGC
Wind power is used in just 0.001% of the EGC
Regulatory entities
MME
UPME
CREG
CND
Colombia depends on the hydroelectric energy
Highly vulnerable to hydrological variability
Dry seasons
Metheorological events
Policy for promotion of NCRES in Colombia
Law 697
Very limited impact
Law 1715
Incentivate NCRES projects
Positive impacts
not enough
Limited scope
Lack of regulation and methodology
Weak regulations
This make a disvantages against conventional energy sources
NCRES in th Colombian Electrical System
Wind Energy
27.000MW energy potential
Lack of knowledge
Photovoltaic energy
Same areas of wind energy potential
Very limited technology
163 to 216 MW in 2030
Small Hydroelectric plants
< 10MW Capacity
8,000 - 25,000 MW electricity generation potential
448 MW in 2030
Energy from Biomass
793 MWh in 2017
Bagasse
110,000 MW potential
need more precise studies
Forecasts of electricity generation from NCRES in colombia
Pessimistic and Optimistic scenarios
Registrated Projects (3 phases)
Technical, economic and enviromental feasibility studies (1year)
Full designs and implementation timetable (1year)
Pre-feasibility studies (1 year)
Forecast of NGC
Projects going ito phase 3
25%
50%
100%
Forecast of PV is higher than UPME
The forecast of wind generation is lower in three scenarios
The new projects show a intense PV implementation in the electricity mix
NCRES has a higher potential than the actual projects
Conclusions
NCRES potential is significatively higher than the currently installed
Biomass potential
16,000 MW
Wind Energy Potential
27,000 MW
Solar radiation potential
20,000 MW
Higher than the world average
Is feasible to have 6% of the electricity generation from NCRES
Is still low copared to its capacity
