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Analysis of energy security, environmental emission and fuel import costs…
Analysis of energy security, environmental emission and fuel import costs under energy import reduction targets: A case of Pakistan
巴基斯坦能源特性
以燃料為主體(高度依賴)
水力/ 太陽能/ 風力
面臨能源短缺
過去研究(其他不同國但相似)
觀察實施炭排稅後，能否減少能源原料進口量與社會經濟改變
過去巴基斯坦研究
between demand and supply
本研究目的
研究 import reduction對巴基斯坦不同面向的長期影響(2005-2050)(BAU)
研究方法
bottom- up MARKAL- based least cost
energy system model
將目標函數 total energy system cost最小化
annual energy supply technology investment cost/ annual energy demand technology investment cost/ net fuel import cost/ domestic fuel cost/ and other costs.
restrictions including satisfaction of energy service demands, capacity transfer, use of capacity, balance for commodities, electricity and heat balance, peaking reserve, base load, availability factor and emission constraints
指標
Energy Demand
The Availability of Energy Resources
Energy Market
情境分析
環境
到2050 GHG 比2005增加9倍
ES
Diversity進步
進口依賴程度增加
脆弱性增加: due to進口依賴程度提高
Energy intensity 進步
整體是進步的，主因是再生能源比率提高
import reduction 的 Implication
Energy supply
再生能源比例必須提高
Environmental
再生能源愈多污染域少
Transport sector
使用燃料會減少
高油價
科技進步，使用耗油更低之交通工具
未來demand方的進步會帶動supply side的成長
未來巴基斯坦進步方式
Increased diversification of the energy resources in primary energy supply mix, better environmental situation, decreased net fuel import cost, falling energy import dependency and decreased vulnerability would be benefits to the Pakistan energy economy and would lead to improved energy security.