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Population Dynamics in Historical and Comparative Perspective - Coggle…
Population Dynamics in Historical and Comparative Perspective
-There were only 5 million people on earth in 8000 BCE
-1750, there were still fewer than a billion
Demographic transitions: the occurrence of prolonged and relatively permanent changes in population growth rates
Measures and Models of Growth
Components method: looking at growth by the influence of births, deaths, and in- and out-migration
Difference Method: Simpler and cruder measurement of population-growth
Measuring Growth by Difference
Linear growth model ("arithmetic growth"): assumes equal percentage of persons added to a population every year
Exponential growth model ("geometric increase"): increases slowly at first and then accelerates as the population base grows
Doubling time (expressed in years instead of rates and percentages): number of years it would take for a population to double in size
Early world population growth: 10 M people 4,000 yrs ago, 7 M in 4000 BCE, 50 M in 1000 BCE, first millennium of Christianity was very low in growth
The Four-Stage Process
Prior to the Colonial Era, growth rates did not vary across the world: growth was equally slow
Stage 2 to Stage 3
growth rates decline due to an intentional decrease in fertility, people took control of natality (birth control)
Pronatalism: the view that having many children is the most virtuous practice
Stage 3 to Stage 4
Europe has now completed its demographic transition full-circle, its growth rate is now slow, uneven, and rates are zero or below like before 1650
Stage 1 to Stage 2
Stage 1: low population growth rates because of high mortality
Stage 2: mid-17th century; important advances: (1) founding of modern science, Isaac Newton, (2) widespread introduction of earliest modern technology of Mortality Control
Demographic transition in less-industrialized countries: Asia's population doubled once, Africa's population doubled twice, Latin Americas population fluctuated the most
Prospects of future population growth
-By 2050 the world's population should double in size from 1990
-By 2050 the elderly population is expected to triple
The redistribution of the world's population
In Asia, Africa, and Latin America, mortality rates continue to decline much faster than birth rates (population in these regions are very young)
Population momentum: populations grow for years even if fertility falls below replacement level
Europe's second transition
-During the Great Depression fertility fell below replacement level
-baby boom increased the level
-In the 1960s it slowed down
Second demographic transition: the declining of marriage, increase in divorce, and growth in non marital unions contributed to more fertility decline
The U.S. population growth and change
Natural increase is far higher than almost all of Europe
The ONLY industrialized country to be among the 12 most populous nations by midcentury and to remain from the top 12 in 1950
800,000 immigrants entering every year
Birth rate is much higher than Europe's
Incipient decline: population size was still increasing but, at current rates, it would not continue to do so for long