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Search Heuristics, Decision Theory - Coggle Diagram
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Decision Theory
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Utility theory
Lotteries
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A lottery (p1, r1; p2, r2; ...; pn, rn) is the situation where a person will receive a reward i with probability j for all i = 1, ..., n
We write L1pL2 if a decision maker prefers L1 to L2.
We write L1iL2 if they are indifferent between the two lotteries.
How can the lotteries be ranked?
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Utility functions
The utility of a reward i, written as u(r_i), is the number q_i such that the decision maker is indifferent between receiving the reward with certainty, and the probability of q_i of receiving the most favourable outcome (but with probability 1 - q_i of receiving the worst outcome).
The specification of u(r_i) for all rewards is called the decision maker's utility function.
Expected utility
The expected utility of a simple lottery is the sum of the probability of the reward * the utility of the reward
Lottery 1 is preferred to Lottery 2 if and only if the expected utility for lottery 1 is higher than that of lottery 2
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An individual's utility function may be estimated:
Fix u(best) = 1 & u(worst) = 0
Ask for a value x_1/2 making them indifferent between a 50/50 chance of the best and worst outcomes.
Repeat for x_1/4 & x_3/4
Plot values.
If curve is not smooth, use more sophisticated methods.
Risk attitude
a decision maker is...
risk-averse if
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and only if u(x) is strictly concave, i.e. u''(x) < 0
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risk-seeking if
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u(x) is strictly convex, i.e. u''(x) > 0
Certainty equivalent
The certainty equivalent of a lottery L, written CE(L), is the value for which the decision maker is indifferent between the lottery and receiving a certain pay-off of CE(L).
Risk premium
The risk premium of a lottery L, written RP(L), is defined as the difference between the expected value and certainty equivalent of the lottery
RP(L) = EV(L) - CE(L)
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Decision trees
If a series of decisions need to be made at different points in time, decision trees can be used to determine optimal decisions.
A large complex problem can be decomposed into several smaller problems.
Forks
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Event fork
denoted by a circle
Outside forces determine which of several random events will occur.
Each branch represents a possible outcome and has a probability associated with it
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Risk aversion can be added to decision trees by looking at the utilities and expected utilities of outcomes.
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Bayes' rule
Means of determining the probability of something happening, given a certain condition.
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