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CHAPTER 2 : HUMAN OBSESSION WITH PREDICTION - Coggle Diagram
CHAPTER 2 :
HUMAN OBSESSION WITH PREDICTION
What ?
2000 year history
8 BC: Ancient Greeks thronged to hear predictions from Oracle of Delphi
Since then, commonsense, nonsense and wishful thinking
Prediction turned scientific with statistics in England around 1700AD
Hyper-progress around World War II (1993-1945)
Business analytics : Using data to predict outcomes firms cares about
Assumption
Past behavior reasonably predicts the future
Rely on historical data
Good prediction need
Sound data
Data = raw facts
Information : when they are sorted, condensed and contextualized data
Insight : simply actionable information
IT unit's job : collecting, cleaning, organizing and making data flow
Non-IT manager : must help IT colleagues figure out what types of information are competitively valuable to line function and how fast need it
Sound models (reasoning)
Insight does not emerge spontaneously from data without a lot of energy deliberately directed to transform it
Software apps transform data into business insight
Apps are "models" translated into software code