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Human Obsession with Prediction - Coggle Diagram
Human Obsession with Prediction
A 2,000 year history
8BC: Ancient Greeks thronged to hear predictions from the Oracle of Delphi
Since then: Commonsense, nonsense, and wishful thinking
Prediction turned scientific with statistics in England around 1700AD
Hyper-progress around World War II (1939-1945)
Business analytics: Using data to predict outcomes your firm cares about
Assumption
Past behavior reasonably predicts the future
Rely on historical data
Good predictions need
Sound data
Data: Raw facts
Information: Sorted, condensed, and contextualized data
Insight: Actionable information
Collecting and managing data is the IT unit’s job
Sound models (reasoning)
Business apps transform data 🡪information 🡪knowledge
Apps are “models” translated into software code
Predicting a baseball superstar, rain, a box-office hit, pricing insurance, catching
spam