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Why Salesteams are not great at forecasting and how to fix it (by Bob Suh)…
Why Salesteams are not great at forecasting and how to fix it (by Bob Suh)
The reasons for bad forecasting is not bad algorithms, but too human behavior that creates inflated forecastings.
Withholding bad news
Maintaining two sets of books
Hoping against hope
Using conveniently fuzzy definitions
Failing to ask the obvious question
Fixing the forecasts
The "haircut approach"
Lopping off some percentage of the system's forecast
Fiying the system
Personalize and benchmark decisions
Provide adjustable algorithms
Continuosly track probabilities
Apply the test of time
Detect who is gaming the system
Reward accuracy
Fixing the prople
Persuade people to change their behavior
Provide system with more accurate data
"swimmiong against the tide of human nature"