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Forecasting in Operations Management - Coggle Diagram
Forecasting in
Operations Management
Definition:
An estimate of
demand
based on events until the actual demand becomes known
Tools
Qualitative
SalesForce Composite:
Make use of SalesForce to gather consumer ideas
Consumer Survey Market:
Gather consumer ideas via the form within sample
Delphi method:
Expert discussion panel, intersection ideas
Quantitative
Time series Models
Naive Approach:
Ft = A(t-1), F(t+1) = A(t)
Moving Averages
:
(C1+C2+...+Cn)/N
Exponential Smoothing:
F(t) = aA(t-1) +(1-a)F(t-1)
Casual Method:
Linear Regression
and others
Choose the best forecasting model based on accuracy and error
Six Basic Steps
Select a forecasting technique/ model
Gather relevant data
Establish time horizon
Make the forecast
Determine the Purpose of the forecast
Monitor the forecast
Type
Technological
Demand Forecast
Economic
Input to MPS
(Master Production Schedule)
Customer order
Inventory on hand
Forecast of demand