THE FUTURE AND
HOW TO SURVIVE IT
Main drivers of success
Emerging-market competitors have changed the rules
There's an internet of threats
Grow and costs have bottomed out
The outlook
Why profits rose
The start of the profit boom coincided with the spread of deregulation and privatization around the world.
The strong position of multinationals from developed countries rests on three advantages
Global presence: Companies have used their size to expand aggressively abroad
Falling costs: Multinationals have exploited unprecedented opportunities for reducing costs
Scale: the bigger is the company, the higher the profit
As populations age in the developed world and China, workforce growth is slowing and even declining in some regions.
There are now twice as many multinational corporations as there were in 1990. Although two-thirds are still headquartered in advanced economies, the balance is quickly shifting. These new competitors are growing more than twice as quickly as companies in advanced economies, both in their home markets and beyond
Technology has created another source of competition for Western incumbents. The total revenue of the tech sector has grown over the past three decades, spawning a new generation of firms, some of which have rapidly attained unprecedented scale in terms of revenues, assets, customers, and profits
We foresee no letup in the reshaping of industries by technology and globalization. We also foresee no shortage of opportunities for companies. Consumption in emerging markets will continue its rapid growth.
Pushing back
several possible responses to the trends we have set out above
Radically self-disrupt
Build new intellectual assets
Seek out patient capital
Go to war for talent
Be paranoid
new competitors, will come from smaller cities in the emerging world, need to prepare and innovate
Big public companies will continue to be subject to market moods, but CEOs and boards have an opportunity to adopt longer-term strategies and target communications to investors who are more focused on the long run
companies need to be willing to disrupt themselves before others do it to them
Assets such as data, algorithms, and software are also becoming more valuable, and within those broad categories, some assets are more valuable than others
Human capital management should become a much higher strategic priority. Companies need to rethink organizational structures, workplace flexibility, and job definitions for a new era.