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BP Energy Outlook (2019), TEAM 6 - Coggle Diagram
BP Energy Outlook (2019)
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Alternate scenario : Increasing environmental concerns lead to a worldwide ban on single-use plastics from 2040. (Single-use plastics ban)
● The ET scenario assumes that the regulation of plastics tightens more quickly than in the past. But growing concerns about the use of plastics means that regulation of plastics may tighten by even more.
● The alternative ‘Single-use plastics ban’ (SUP ban) scenario considers a case in which the regulation of plastics is tightened more quickly, culminating in a worldwide ban on the use of plastics for packaging and other single uses from 2040 onwards.
● The non-combusted use of oil, gas and coal, e.g. as feedstocks for petrochemicals, lubricants and bitumen, grows robustly driven by particularly strong growth in plastics.
● The growth of fuels as a feed stock is slower than in the past, largely reflecting the assumption that regulations governing the use and recycling of plastics tighten materially over the next 20 years, including a doubling of recycling rates to around 30%. This reduces the growth in oil demand by around 3 Mb/d relative to a continuation of past trends.
● Non-combusted use of oil, gas and coal grows robustly, despite increasing regulation on the use of plastics.
● Indeed, without further advances in these alternative materials and widespread deployment of efficient collection and reuse systems, such a ban could lead to an increase in overall energy demand and carbon emissions, and raise a number of other environmental concerns, such as increasing food waste.
● Energy demand grows in all sectors, with buildings and non-combusted use increasing in importance.
Alternate scenario: The world needs ‘more energy’ to allow global living standards to continue to improve.
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● Population today live in countries where average energy consumption is less than 100 GJ per head. In the ET scenario, this proportion is still around two-thirds even by 2040. In the alternative ‘More energy’ scenario this share is reduced to one-third by 2040.
● This assumes that countries in which energy consumption is much greater than 100 GJ/per head do not economize on their energy use. If all those countries reduced average consumption levels to the EU average in 2040 would provide almost the entire energy required.
● The ‘More energy’ scenario represents a half-way step to reducing the proportion of the world’s population living in countries where the average level of consumption is below 100 GJ/per head to one-third by 2040.
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