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Epidemiology Transition Theory …
Epidemiology Transition Theory
Abdel Omran
The Age of Pestilence and Famine:
Occurred 1000 years ago when man moved towards the agricultural society
Nomadic lifestyle renounced - people stayed in one place, increasing contact with waste, contaminating water supply
New areas cleared = people exposed to parasites/bacteria they had never encountered before
As cities and exploration of surroundings increased so did man spread deadly diseases
Epidemics, famines, wars caused huge numbers of deaths
Infectious diseases were dominant (high mortality rate, especially in children)
Life expectancy = 20-40years, Infant mortality rate = 200-300 deaths per 1000 live births
The Age of Receding Pandemics:
Roughly 200 years ago (Industrial Revolution)
Whilst many of the infectious disease still existed, now chronic, non-infectious, degenerative diseases were added to the mix
Infectious diseases and fall in mortality rates
Infant mortality rate = 150 per 1000 live births, life expectancy = 35- 50 years
Increased economic growth led to an improvement following with interventions eg. clean water,, sanitary sewage, increased pre + post natal care
Introduction of modern healthcare and technologies - immunisation programmes + introduction of antibiotics
Enabled the control and elimination of infectious diseases such as polio, smallpox
However, technology = chemical toxins, smoke, stress + increase in allergies, autoimmune diseases and STDs
The Age of Chronic Diseases:
Began in the late 20th century
Elimination of infectious diseases makes way for chronic diseases among the elderly
Major cause of death = chronic degenerative + manmade diseases
Health care improved = less lethal infectious diseases - nonetheless cause relatively high levels of morbidity
Health patterns depend on social, cultural behaviour eg. food consumption, drinking
However, on average, a relatively long period of mobility may occur in prevalence of one or more diseases
Low levels of mortality and fertility = little population growth
Infant mortality rate = less than 25 deaths per 1000 live births, life expectancy = 80 years
Stage 4? - Delayed Degenerative Diseases:
Medical advances delay the onset of degenerative diseases - life expectancy has gone from early 70s to mid 80s (ACs)
Better understanding and treating degenerative diseases = longer prevention of allowing these diseases to cause harm
Exceptions:
Though the struggles against infectious was at first successful some countries were unable to reach a pace of progress sufficiency to reach the gap from ACs
Arrival of AIDs caused several reversals (1980s) - life expectancy suddenly dropped
Epidemiological Transition - Developed Countries:
Currently, most developed countries are in the third stage
Fertility rates are low - causes/deaths have shifted from infectious to non-communicable