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Probability - Coggle Diagram
Probability
Probability Law
Axioms
Event - a subset of the sample space
- Probability is assigned to the Event
Axioms
- Non-negativity
- Normalization
- (Finite) Additivity
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Sample space
- Describe possible outcome
- Describe beliefs about likelihood of outcome
definition- Set of the possible outcome
List must be
- Mutually exclusive
- collectively exhaustive
- At the right granularity
Examples
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Continuous Probability Space
Countable additivity
- Discrete but infinite sample space
- an infinite sequence of disjoint events
- Additivity holds only for countable sequences of event
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Interpretation of Probability
- Description of beliefs
- Betting Preference
A better definition
- Rules of consistent reasoning
- used for predictions and decision
Probability Calculation steps
- Specify the Sample space
- Specify a probability Law
- Identify the event of interest
- Calculate ..