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The world recession?? - Coggle Diagram

- - - - China to contine to match growth in
        M2 pacing nominal
        GDP growth
        more measures to lower finance costs, more interest rate cut and &RRR cut
        to support stable and
        healthy development
        of property
        market. \
- - - - Employment Index 48.4 >> 51.4 dec
        
        Supplied delivery 47.2 >> 45.1 - suggesting that goods price falling on monthly basis
      - New order Index 47.2 >> 45.2 in dec
      - ISM Manufacturing Prices dec actual 39.4, forecast 42.9, Nov 43
    - - None agree rate cut in 2023
        
        Inflation may worsen if rate hike not stay restrictive long enough
        
        FED Job to curb inflation gets harder if market interpret the intention wrongly
        
        History says not to ease too early
        
        Slower rate hike does not mean going lenient on the 2% target rate
      - Rising toll of Job cut has yet to result in loosening of the labour market
      - China reopening
        
        Will the surging demand actually supports the demand of economy thus achieving soft landing?
        
        Offsetting the fall of spending
        
        Worsening the global inflation? as the surging demand spills over the world?
      - Banks like Wells Fargos are planning to step back from housing loan market
        
        regulatory pressure
        
        higher interest rate
        
        risk management by bank to mitigate the loan default risk aka NPL
        
        -
        
        Probably caused by anticipating the housing price/ property in general to drop further
    - - JOLTS Job Opening & Labour Turnover Survey 10.5million Job Vacancies in November >> more than forecast
        
        Wage growth
        Jan 06, 2023 (Dec) 4.6% yoy Actual0.3% forecast 0.4% Previous 0.4%
        
        high rise wage cost
        might ultimately read
        to more unemployment•
        as companies wil
        try to reduce cost
        Which in turn increasing unemployment
        Mcd
        Companies might even push more for automation kind of thing
      - no. of American filing for unemployment insurance unexpectedly fell last week
        
        Initial jobless claim dec 22 fell to 204,000 from 223,000 forecast 225,000
        
        non farm payroll - 223,000 new jobs, smallest increase in 2 years
      - Amazon & Salesforce announcing job cuts
        Deepening Big Tech retrenchment as pandemic boom fade
        
        Rising toll of Job cut has yet to result in loosening of the labour market
    - - But Labour demand is still going strong
        
        Wage growth is still increasing but at a slower rate
      - Good deflations, now the data shows even in the services are also slowing down
    - - focusing on
        banks's earning. This Friday after CPI On Thursday
- - - - \
      - limits on
        passenger
        flight between Macau &
        mainland I
        are tobe
        ease on gradual basis
- - - - Wholesale rate
        must drop
        Substantially
        for long period to ease
        the inflation
      - supportfor
        house hold
        bills hemp reduced
        _ business
        face
        one never
        engy bill
        
        easing prices
        of raw
        ingredients, palm,
        rapeseed d
        Sunflower oil
        
        UK strikes to
        continue
        after
        government
        tally with union
        fail.
- - - - Chinese are
        stocking up oil
        for storage propose
        instead
        of immediate
        use
        
        Risings storage tends
        to depress pure
        
        China increasing export
        quots tfr refining oil
        
        Signaling poor \
        domestic demand
        
        _ more competition
        in international
        suppling