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Cole, Brian. "Clausewitz's Wondrous Yet Paradoxical Trinity: The…
Cole, Brian. "Clausewitz's Wondrous Yet Paradoxical Trinity: The Nature of War as a Complex Adaptive System." Joint Forces Quarterly 96 (7 February 2020): 42-49.
The Trinity: primordial violence, hatred, and enmity (people)... chance and probability (army)... and of its element of subordination, as an instrument of policy (government)
It is paradoxical because while war springs from the rational (instrument of policy), it is "propelled" by violence and hatred and impacted by chance and probability.... neither of which is rational.
The complex and adaptive system is sensitive to initial circumstances, but equally sensitive to chance/luck
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Critical to understand each element, but also how each element interacts and the theory is useless if one element is ignored
Complex adaptive systems useful to describe social systems as well; war as a complex and non-linear process
- Tha nature of war is constant
The character of war has changed (no longer on defined battlefields with defined forces always), but the nature of war remains unchanged
- Three levels of the Trinity
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Tertiary: context: The conditions under which the other two elements interact and critical to understanding the system as a whole (the most important level is the context under which you're seeing the trinity)
Primary/Objective Trinity: Passion (people), chance (military), politics (government)
- A review of the inherent properties of complex systems
- Aggregation of Agents: Can choose to aggregate certain agents or levels of agents to better understand the system and its behavior. At the choice of the modeler.
- Tags: Used to delineate elements of a population or agents: determines boundaries... example is Clausewitz's tagging/defining of passion = people; chance = military; reason = government.
- Complex Adaptive Systems: consist of a network of agents acting in parallel; constantly acting and reacting to other agents in the system
Key elements: Variation, Interaction, and Selection
Framework: Agents, Strategy, Population
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- Variation: provides the raw material for adaptation... although more adaptation can result in more unpredictable behavior.
- Interaction: events of interest occur because of interaction between agents/populations
Asymmetric interaction: difference between what one agent is able to broadcast to other agents (ex. leaders to subordinates)
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- Selection/Adaptation: A change in strategy driven by the goal of achieving success, however that is defined
- Non-linearity: The magnet model analogy; there is an infinite combination of how the system will interact once it starts
Have to anticipate moderating effects and those that lead to path-dependent (tipping point) behavior
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A complicated system (closed) is not the same thing as a complex system (open and interacting with its environment)... must have certain properties
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- The Trinity as a Complex Adaptive System:
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Proximity of opponents in war can influence which tendency will likely be stronger than the other. If at greater distance, more likely that rational thinking will prevail (9/11?)
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