Cole, Brian. "Clausewitz's Wondrous Yet Paradoxical Trinity: The Nature of War as a Complex Adaptive System." Joint Forces Quarterly 96 (7 February 2020): 42-49.

  1. Clausewitz's Trinity
  1. Introduction:
  1. Tha nature of war is constant
  1. Three levels of the Trinity
  1. A review of the inherent properties of complex systems
  1. The Trinity as a Complex Adaptive System:
  1. Conclusion
  1. Aggregation of Agents: Can choose to aggregate certain agents or levels of agents to better understand the system and its behavior. At the choice of the modeler.
  1. Tags: Used to delineate elements of a population or agents: determines boundaries... example is Clausewitz's tagging/defining of passion = people; chance = military; reason = government.
  1. Complex Adaptive Systems: consist of a network of agents acting in parallel; constantly acting and reacting to other agents in the system
  1. Flows:
  1. Variation: provides the raw material for adaptation... although more adaptation can result in more unpredictable behavior.
  1. Interaction: events of interest occur because of interaction between agents/populations
  1. Selection/Adaptation: A change in strategy driven by the goal of achieving success, however that is defined
  1. Non-linearity: The magnet model analogy; there is an infinite combination of how the system will interact once it starts

The trinity = complex adaptive system

Critical to understand each element, but also how each element interacts and the theory is useless if one element is ignored

Complex adaptive systems useful to describe social systems as well; war as a complex and non-linear process

The Trinity: primordial violence, hatred, and enmity (people)... chance and probability (army)... and of its element of subordination, as an instrument of policy (government)

It is paradoxical because while war springs from the rational (instrument of policy), it is "propelled" by violence and hatred and impacted by chance and probability.... neither of which is rational.

The complex and adaptive system is sensitive to initial circumstances, but equally sensitive to chance/luck

The character of war has changed (no longer on defined battlefields with defined forces always), but the nature of war remains unchanged

Secondary/subjective: societal elements

Tertiary: context: The conditions under which the other two elements interact and critical to understanding the system as a whole (the most important level is the context under which you're seeing the trinity)

Primary/Objective Trinity: Passion (people), chance (military), politics (government)

A complicated system (closed) is not the same thing as a complex system (open and interacting with its environment)... must have certain properties

Complex systems are irreducible and non-linear; result in positive feedbacks and instability

Complex systems are self-organizing

Key elements: Variation, Interaction, and Selection

Framework: Agents, Strategy, Population

Multiplier effect: overall increase in effect for every unit spent

Recycler effect: each round of the cycle holds onto a percentage of the material as it decreases.

Asymmetric interaction: difference between what one agent is able to broadcast to other agents (ex. leaders to subordinates)

Uniform interaction: all elements are able to meet and develop a network

Have to anticipate moderating effects and those that lead to path-dependent (tipping point) behavior

Friction = moderating effect

The Standing Ovation Problem...

Proximity of opponents in war can influence which tendency will likely be stronger than the other. If at greater distance, more likely that rational thinking will prevail (9/11?)

Proximity can lead to mob violence and/or group thinkg

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