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Electoral Process and Direct Democracy - Coggle Diagram
Electoral Process and Direct Democracy
Voting Behaviour
Support for the idea of a divided nation.
Primacy Factors
Voter Profile 2020
Race: African American (87%) people vote Democract, along with Hispanic (65%) people and Asian (61%) people
Gender: Women vote democrat (57%), Men (53%) vote republican
Religion: white evangelical Christaians strongly back Republicans (76%).
Wealth: Less of a difference than expected
Some of the wealthiest states vote Democrat such as New Jersey and Maryland
Some of the poorest white states vote Republican such as Mississippi and West Virginia.
54% earning over $100k voted Republican
55% earning under $55k voted Democrat
Age: young voters (60%) largely vote Democrat
Sexual Orientation: Most individuals (64%) who identify as LGBTQ+ vote Democrat
Geography: Large urban areas over 50k pop. (60%) voted Democrat. Smaller rural communities favoured Trump (57%)
Recency Factors
Issues, the candidate’s personality, effective campaign marketing
Voters can cast a negative vote
White evangelicals were hardly supporters of the thrice-married Trump, who’s could not claim to have ‘found God’.
Realigning Elections
Not all elections are of equal interest Poltiical realignment occurs when a group of voters changes with a fresh political party or candidate, with a lasting impact.
The 1932 Election
Previous 30 years, Republicans had been dominant, Hoover had gained popularity during the boom of the 1920s minimising Government intervention and business regulation.
The Depression had begun under Hoover, and failure to coordinate response.
The Democrats nominated NY governor, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who had mobilised his state governemnt much more effectively to fight the Depression.
Promised interventionist government, simply having to avoid major mistakes due tot he unpopularity of Hoover, and relentlessly attack these inadequacies.
Built broad coalition of voters combining southern Protestants, northern Jews, Catholics and urban African-American, labour union members, small farmers, liberals and radicals.
Dominated until 1960s, aside from Eisenhower (1952-60)
The party also controlled both houses of Congress during nearly the entirety of this period.
Civil rights movement support ‘signed away the south’ for the Democrats .
1928 (R) won by over 6 million votes, and 444-87 ECVs
1932 (D) won by over 7 million votes, and 472-59 ECVs.
Links between parties and their core voting coalitions
Both main parties rely heavily on their core support, despite realigning elections.
Keep support without being dominated, as a party appealing to such a small segment of the electorate cannot win national elections
Fuse together complementary groups, whilst appealing to the more moderate, independent voters.
Adopting radical policies beloved by core support risk alienating mainstream voters.
Cannot risk ignoring base support risking disincentivising them from campaignign, donating and generally supporting the campaign.
Culinary Workers Union in Nevada opposed Sanders’ ‘Medicare for all’ as it would jeopardise hard-won healthcare packages already negotiated for their members.
Campaign Finance
A big business and mightily expensive, with little doubt over legal complexities and ambiguities.
Cost-based evidence
2020: $14 billion, greater than certain countries’ entire GDP
Broke all records, with huge amounts of spending on congressional campaigns on small number of tight races.
2020 South Carolina Senate race was the most expensive, with a total expenditure of $227 million.
Where does the money go?
They employ a large range of specialists, from political strategists to web designers.
National campaigns require vast travel expenses, and buying up airtime.
Specifically in swing states.
By mid October 2020, Biden and trump collectively had spent around $175 million on Facebook ads.
The UK is comparatively the size of Oregon
Where does the money from?
The current system faces very little effective regulation .
2020 Election
Large individual donations: 41.53%
Small individual donations: 22.4%
Self funding:13.01%
Organisations: 3.12%
PACs: 5.01%
Donors can find ways to help fund their preferred party or candidates.
Wealthy candidates wholly or partially self-fund
Trump pumped an estimated $66 million into the 2016 campaign.
Freedom from influence or favours from donors .
Completely free form governemnt restriction other than disclosing funds to the Federal Election Commission, as well as accusations of corruption.
Encourages perception that politics is merely an activity for the wealthy, and can be counterproductive.
Presumtpion of arrogance without wider support.
Donations from supporters
Nearly all candidates accept donations from supporters.
Hard money: directly to a specific candidate.
Soft money: spent indirectly to promote candidates or attack opponents.
Hard money is limited by the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act 2002, where no individual can donate more than $2,800 per annum directly to a single candidate campaign, and no more than $35,500 to a national poltical party.
Political Action Committees were established as candidate supporter’s groups, which can raise and distribute money to favoured candidates up to $5,000.
Soft money is elsewhere known as independent expenditure, where Super PACs or other groups raise money but must not formally coordinate with a candidate’s own official campaign.
Future Forward USA backed Biden’s 2020 campaign.
Federal government funding
Attempts to introduce voluntary cpas, matching federal funding in returns or candidate limiting their overall spending.
Least significant source, in theory candidates could be far less consumed by constant fundraising.
Worked for a time until Obama rejected it, calculating he could raise more by his own efforts
Neither Trump nor Biden accepted state funding for the 2020 election.
Does money make a difference?
High correlation between big spenders and eventual winners
The highest spending candidate won in only four of the ten most expensive Senate races in 2020, with incumbents winning seven. .
Often, money follows the most likely winner, having decent success to a lawmaker being what really matter
Some interest groups divide their money between parties, not following partisan alignments such as the National Association for Realtors.
Maryland’s 7th Congressional District
Incumbents raise more money and are more likely to win, but there are exceptions.
In 2020, this safe (D) seat saw (R) challenger Kimberly Klacik greatly outspend (D) candidate, by about $4.2 million, yet the seat remained (D), maintaining his seat ‘was not for sale’.
Should it be reformed?
Constitution v Corruption debate, the First Amendment right to freedom of political expression.
Yes
Election expenditure is out of control.
Emphasis on fundraising distracts focus (especially House)
Only the personally wealthy or connected can enter politics.
Instances of non-disclosure
No
Campaign finance inflation is not continual, dipped in 2016.
Unwise to ignore the concerns of ordinary voters, only wealthy.
All supporters to show additional loyalty
Poltiical donations are part of the free market.
Political donations come with disclosure and transparency.
Even if reforms are passed, there will be loopholes.
Direct Democracy
Works only on state level.
Three forms of direct democracy
Ballot Initiatives
Laws or measures proposed by voters , if enough signatures obtained, placed on ballot at election times.
Legalisation of marijuana, same-sex marriage and expanding Medicaid all featured on ballot initiatives.
Recall elections
Voters can force an elected state official to face re-election.
California state judge, Aaron Persky, was successfully recalled in 2018, following comments and leniency of a sentence handed to a Stanford University student found guilty of sexual assault.
Referendums
Occur when state legislatures pass a law, then required to submit this directly to voters for approval.
Regular referral of state constituional amendments to voters
78% of Alabama voters supported the display of the Ten Commandments in state courthouses.
No constitutional provision for national direct democracy, such as national referendums or the recall of a Supreme Court judge/ president/ member of Congress.
Laws concerning direct democracy vary across states.
California most high profile with making frequent use of ballot initiatives.
Added complexity due to federalism , as well as cost. Getting an initiative on a ballot takes time and money
So ballot initiatives are usually the product of pressure groups, not individuals.
2020, total raised on campaigning over direct democracy measures close to $1.2 billion,
$220 million spent on one alone in California.
Works Well
Allows voters to have a direct say in framing laws (purer)
Allows variation in laws between different states.
Improves accountability of state-level officials between elections
Additional check on state executives and legislatures.
Increased poltiical participation aside from elections.
Popularity- total of 130 measures on ballots in 2020.
Doesn’t Work Well
‘Tyranny of the majority’
Inconsistency between states such as same sex marriage before Obergefell.
Often simply a tactic used by ‘sore losers’, unhappy with certain policy.
Undermines representative government.
Increases power of pressure groups
Enough checks and balances as governors have a veto, another opportunity for stalling important issues.
Often low turnout
Ordinary voters may not understand complex laws.
2018 North Dakota, Democrats used an initiative on the legislation of cannabis to attract young voters and liberals.
The Electoral System
Presidentiall elections
Congressional elections
Primaries
Direct Democracy
Timings of Elections
Set down in the constitution.
Presidential elections take place every 4 years in November, inauguration in January.
If a president dies, or resigns, the VP completes the rest of the term without another election
Congressional elections take place every two years
All of the House, 1/3 of the Senate.
Timings for elections such as state, local and primary elections are decided by individual states.
Primaries are formal secret ballot elections that select delegates for parties’ presidential nomination conventions.
The Role of the States
Individual states decide on voter ID laws and how primaries are organised
Although there are national elections, there are no national systems of elections.
States can manipulate boundaries for House districts (
gerrymandering
).
Nearly all US elections employ a majoritarian electoral system , most congressional elections where the candidate with the largest number of votes wins.
Other than the electoral college, there are no federal requirements for electoral systems.
Main uses a system similar to the Single Transferable Vote for congressional and local elections.
Georgia requires a top-two election, so if the top candidate does not get over 50% of the vote the first time around, a runoff election occurs 8 weeks later. (Happened in 2020).
California has a non-partisan blanket primary law, where the top two candidates regardless of party are selected ina. State primary, then go head to head in the Senate election.
Heavily Democratic state, had 2 Democrats for election, with no Republicans on the ballot.
Presidential elections use an indirect method of election.
Each state plus DC receives an allocation of Electoral College votes, equivalent to the size of their congressional delegation.
Every state has a minimum of 3 ECVs, California with the largest (55). Washington DC has no congressional representation but the Twenty-First Amendment gave it three ECVs.
Recounted every 10 years abiding by national census.
2010, Texas gained 4 in time for the 2012 election, Ohio and NY losing 2 each.
States with above average population growth gain ECVs and House districts over time (reapportionment).
Reflects the framers’ fears concerning a mass popular vote.
Main Features
Number of electors per state is equivalent to the overall size of congressional delegation
Nearly all state allocate voters on a winner takes all basis, but Maine and Nebraska use the congressional district methods.
The winner of each district is awarded one electoral vote, and the winner of the statewide vote is awarded the reminding 2.
The electors are chosen from among the local party faithful., for example Bill and Hilary Clinton were 2 of NY’s electors in 2020.
Faithless electors are a protest vote, who despite a pledge to vote for their party’s candidate, vote for another.
Winner of the national vote can lose the Electoral College.
In 1888, 2000 and 2016, Republicans emerged victorious.
If no single candidate wins a majority, the House would choose the president and the Senate the VP.
Should the Electoral College be Abolished
No
It normally delivers the right result
Such as in 2012 and 2020
Reflects federal nature of the USA, ensuring candidates have to campaign in a range of states not cimply the most populated.
No superior method has gained widespread and bipartisan support.
Nationwide popular vote would lead candidates to focus on just large urban areas
Faithless electors have never affected the outcome of a result, remedied by passing laws requiring lelectors to vote for their pledged candidate.
Laws could be passed to award electors proportionally in each state
Produces a clear winner, as the presidency cannot be shared out proportionally, no chance of runoff election.
Abolition would require a constitutional amendment, smaller states losing from this would inevitably veto any proposition.
What would replace it? Direct popular vote, or system like STV would focus on large urban centres undermining federalism.
The Maine system could incentivise gerrymandering.
Yes
The winner of the popular vote can fail to be elected as with Al Gore in 2000.
Exaggerates margins of victory
Reagan 1984 won under 59% of the popular vote, but over 97% of the ECVs.
Smaller states are overrepresented.
Drawn up in a politically different era when the USA was smaller and less diverse.
Encourages candidate to focus on swing states such as Florida and Ohio.
EC depresses turnout, especially in safer seats, as many votes are effectively ‘wasted’.
61% showed support of abolition.
Discriminates against independents and third parties.
Advantages
Large number of elections offer many opportunities for political participation.
Almost full majoritarian system ensures clear results and single-party control of legislative chambers.
Reflects federal nature of US government , amid a broad national framework to avoid bias and discrimination.
The Electoral College reinforces federalism’s hilts ensuing smaller states are not overlooked.
Disadvantages
So many elections can lead to apathy and a degree of cynicism
The system favours a two-party dominant system, little scope for independents and third parties.
The two parties often control one chamber each of Congress or the state legislature, making deadlock more common.
Gerrymandering and Voter ID laws allow for electoral manipulation in individual states
Electoral distortion amongst the electoral college means the pwoer of smaller states can be considerably exaggerated.
Main Characteristics of American Election Campaigns
Frequency
Campaignign for the next election begins after the mid terms.
‘Invisible primaries’ where a president seeking a second term view their polciies’ impact on re-election prospects.
Individuality
All candidates are self-starters, with US elections campaigns fail to mention the party allegiance reflecting ‘rugged individualism’.
Candidates get themselves on the ballot by securing enough nomination signatures and raising campaign funds.
State and national parties help channel finance and direct donors
Trump’s 2020 victory showed with enough money, public profile and campaigning skill, it is possible to become president, having never held elected office before.
A very sizeable minority of Americans trusted Trump as an individual not necessarily as a Republican.
‘Make America Great Again’.
Many state and congressional election ads emphasise key qualities such as military service, success in their chosen profession and family and faith.
When seeking re-election, residents highlight policy success, fulfilled pledges and accumulated achievement in government.
Iowa Senate candidate Joni Ernst (R) 2014 Ad ‘squeal’ to cutting pork-barrelling funding, with large agricultural sector, she went on to win, and re-elected in 2020.
Getting the Right People to Turn Out and Vote
Core voter turnout is important as most candidates have and appeal to certain segments of the electorate.
A lot of time and effort is put into persuading those likely to vote for a candidate to cast their ballot.
2004, the Republicans ran a national campaign promoting state ballot measures banning same-sex marriage to incentivise white evangelicals tov two and support George W. Bush’s re-election bid.
Many individual campaigns sought to discourage certain groups of voters
Few Republicans actively want African-Americans voting in increased numbers, cynically considering their core support.
(R) controlled states less enthusiasm for postal votes and tighter voter ID laws whihc is more popular with younger and lower paid workers, less likely to vote Republican.
Trump’s 2020 ‘stolen’ election
‘If you count the illegal votes, I easily win’
The Swing Movement
Most campaigning in US national elections occurs in a small number of states due to its vast size.
For presidentials, more time and money is spent on ‘swing states’ which could vote either way.
Florida
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Limited time is spent in safe seats such as California or Texas, relative to their size and ECVs.
Nationalpopularvote.com found that 2/3 of campaign events in 2016 were held in just six states.
By contrast, in primary campaigns the emphasis is on the states that come first in the primary and caucuses diary such as Iowa.
Victory in these states can build a candidate’s momentum, creates added funding, and leads to early exits by more marginal candidates.
In the 2020 Democrat primaries, four contenders withdrew after the first two contests.
Money
Large (and increasing) cost of campaigning and elections.
2020 elections cost around $14 billion, over half spent on races for Congress.
Bernie Sanders pulled in $46 million in donations in Feb 2020 alone, from 2.2 million separate donations.
Many ordinary Americans, not just the rich, contribute to political campaigns.
Money does not guarantee success (Clinton heavily outspent Trump in 2016)
Lack of funds to run an effective campaign is a significant handicap for most candidates.
Midterms
Important indicator of public confidence , generally resulting in a dampening on the governing party.
George W. Bush is an exception following 9/11.
Most presidents lose ground, more importantly lose control of Congress.
Obama lost the House in 2010, and the Senate in 2014.
Senators and House representatives are not constrained by term limits , mainly long-term veterans building a strogn local base and effective campaign team.
The Selection and Nomination of Candidates
Primary elections emerged from the ‘Progressive era’, representing dislike for ‘smoke filled rooms’ where candidates were selected behind closed doors.
Select delegates pledged to vote for a particular candidate at their national nominating convention.
Also used to select party candidates for state and congressional elections.
Presidents planning re-election rarely face serious primary opposition.
Trump 2020 and Obama 2012.
Although electoral contests between candidates from the same party, the level of personal animosity and negativity can be considerable
Trump labelled Ted Cruz as ‘Lyin’ Ted’.
State variation:
Closed primaries: only allow pre-registered to a particular party to participate (Oregon and NY)
Open primaries: Allow all registered voters to vote in any party’s primary, but only one (Georgia)
Semi-open/closed: Voters pre-registered with a party can only vote in that party’s primary, but independent non-affiliated voters can choose on polling day.
Caucuses are dying out, with a shrinking minority (mainly rural) still using them
In 2020, three sttaes retained them for Democrat presidential candidates
Iowa
Nevada
Wyoming.
Turnout is often low, consisting largely of party’s core supporters
Candidates have to coordinate to the left or right attracting enough votes from ideologically hardened supporters.
Timings
Changes with each election, with states often practicing ‘frontloading’ where primaries are moved forward to gain more influence over the final outcome.
2020, California moved it from June to March, with national parties unhappy with too mcuh frontloading, preferring a lengthier contest.
‘Super Tuesday’ many states bunch heir contests together on one day in March .
Year prior to primaries, ‘invisible primaries’ when potential candidates announce intention to run, set up exploratory campaign team, and raise public profile.
The 2020 Democrat Primaries
Started with no clear front runner, 29 candidates in the running, including a record six women.
Came down to 2, one liberal populist (Bernie Sanders) a progressive candidate confront the poltical and business establishment embracing a radical expansion of federal welfare.
Another more moderate, mainstream caniddate and former VP, Joe Biden, best placed to make inroads in previously lost blue-collar states like Michigan.
Initiated poor performance, before South Carolina with an endorsement from its congressmen, reinforced by winning 10/14 Super Tuesday contests, received endorsements from candidates dropping out.
Advantages of Primaries
Boosts opportunities for political participation
Allows political outsiders to run
More suitable in a democracy letting the people choose
They test candidate’s’ qualities for the office
Wide range of states to influence outcome as length of primary campaigns is staggered
Disadvantages of Primaries
Increased focus on individuals not policy or party, exacerbating divisions
Outsiders often lack connections and resources for such a demanding job
35% of voters said primaries are a good way of selecting best-qualifier nominees, with low turnout.
Political professionals better placed to understand qualities
Primaries add to overall cost of campaigning increasing voter fatigue.
If the system is flawed, how to replace it is unclear.
A single national primary election:
Removes federal aspect and disadvantage small states, and relatively unknown candidates to build momentum.
Rotating regional primaries:
Country divided into 4 regions taking turns holding primaries on the same day, rotating who went first. Candidates with centralised support in a region might gain advantage or disadvantage.
The Delaware Plan:
Allow small states to go first, followed by larger states, four categories grouped by population size. Voting in bigger states ina four-stage process.
National Nominating Conventions
Formal coronations of successful candidates.
Can play a direct role in choosing the caniddate, although usually the results of the preceding primaries mean the delegate vote is a foregone conclusion.
‘Brokered convention’ if no candidate has majority, not happened since 1984
Unites a divided party
Gives momentum to the candidate’s campaign via publicity and outline main policy themes.
Marks formal beginning of the presidential campaign.
Key Factors that Affect the Outcome of American Elections
Incumbency
2018 midterms, Congress incumbents who sought reelection were 90.5% victorious.
In Maine, Trump lost statewide poll considerably to Biden, but long term incumbent Republcian Senator was easily re-elected.
Higher level of name recognition, and can boast past achievements, federal funding and job security for their state/district.
Benefit from establsihed donor base and campaign organisation.
Dissuade challengers from within or outside the party
Many serve on relevant congressional committees influencing regional specific policy.
Incumbency does not guarantee success
Tight Senate race in Florida ousted the incumbent Democrat in the 2018 midterms, saw a total campaign spend of around $118 million.
At presidential level, one0term presidents are rare, such as Trump.
Policy Issues
Matters of competence and trust
The economy is mainly the key issue, low taxes, falling unemployment and economic optimism can help secure re-election
Ability to handle expected crises (Bush’s response to 9/11) contrasted with his response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005
Media
Poltiical ads
The majority are attack ads, portraying rivals as untrustworthy, corrupt, dangerous
2012 Obama attack on Mitt Romney, being ‘in-pocket’ of big wealthy oil companies.
Social Media
Most digital users follow, like or retweet candidates who share their views.
Lack of regulation.
More important in reinforcing the base than swaying allegiances.
The Mainstream Media
Growing partisanship in news outlets, reflecting one side of the poltiical spectrum (R) Fox and (D) CNN.
2016 Liberal outlets focusing on Trump’s verbal indiscretions.
Leadership and Individual Qualities
Focus on party at the expense of the party, in campaign ads, rarely disclosing party affiliation.
Hope and Change was an Obama slogan in 2008 not Democrat.
Reflects the role of primaries.
Nature of presidential office is that of singular authority.
Social media furthered this, with Trump amassing 42 million twitter followers, with the GOP totalling 2.4 million.
Qualities of a leader are often paradoxical.
Principled but pragmatic
Compassionate prepared to make tough decisions.
Stress on tolerance and family values put themselves at greater risk if extra-marital affairs or sexual harassment emerge.
The MeToo movement, saw many Democrat and Republcian law makers ruined careers
Michigan Democrat congressman following allegations of sexual harassment, secretly using taxpayers money to settle a claim, resigned in 2017.
Voting Profile
Many US voters are to varying degrees predisposed to vote for a certain party.
Money
Money cannot buy outcomes but helps make candidate strong bids for office.
Without access to decent funding, caniddate shave a slimmer chance of success, especially in higher tier elections.
Split Ticket Voting and Abstention in US Elections
Split Ticket Voting
When a voter decides to vote for candidates from different parties at the same election.
This could mean voting for Biden as president, but for a Republcian in the Senate or the House
Sharply declined in recent years
2016 was the first time when every senate race corresponded with how that state voted in that ear’s presidential election.
1982 midterms, Democrats won 17 of 28 Senate contests which Reagan had won 2 years prior.
Ever-widening divide between (D) and (R) on fundamental poltiical values
Americans are more consistently liberal or conservative in their views than in the past.
Reflects preferences in personalities over parties in some cases
Number of elected offices offers many opportunities to split one’s ballot.
Consequences
Divided government at either state or national level.
Split Senate delegations
Voting behaviour of ‘split states’
High Abstention Levels
Despite more opportunities for voters to participate and vote, it has low turnout rates.
2016 55.7% of voting age population turned out for the presidential race (although representing 87% of registered voters)
2020 Election, turnout soared to a record 66.4%
Trump was deeply polarising
Pandemic meant many states made it easier to vote by mail or to vote early by maintaining social distancing.
Lower for primaries, typically under 30%, even in a competitive one for the Democrats in 2020 in an important state like New Hampshire (26% of eligible voters)
Midterms have generally low turnout, but rose to a 40 year record high in 2018.
Why are they low?
Some reasons are primarily structural
Requirement for Americans to proactively register to vote, whereas this is mandatory in the UK.
In certain states, ex-felons are barred from voting.
Some states do not make postal voting easy, states making use of alternative voting have higher turnout.
Many states have high thresholds in terms of nomination signatures, limiting candidates on the ballot.
Some states have introduced toguher voter ID laws to dsciourage voter fraud
‘Voter fatigue’ or democratic overload, feeling disenchanted with politics as there are so many opportunities for participation
Discrimination against third party and independents through use of majoritarian electoral system.