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Topic 4: Policy Forecasting And Formulation - Coggle Diagram
Topic 4: Policy Forecasting And Formulation
Forms of Forecasting
Prediction
Conjecture
Projection
Purpose of Forecastin
g
To use the past and present situation to determine the future states of problem
To shape the future in an active manner in relations to what has happened in the past.
To plan the best possible course of action among the various alternatives which the future may offer
Methods of Forecasting
Qualitative methods Judgmental
Consensus, Genius forecasting
Quantitative methods
Time Series, Regression Analysis
Problem of Forecasting
Invalid experts opinion
Personal Bias
Limitation of Forecasting methods and techniques
Data is expensive & difficult to access
I
n-Accuracy of forecast
In-accuracy of info/data