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Chapter 4: Policy Forecasting and Formulation - Coggle Diagram
Chapter 4: Policy Forecasting and Formulation
Policy forecasting
Process to predict future direction towards problem occur.
Option can take to solve particular problem.
Action to do either new, modify, terminate policy.
Forecasting purpose
Provide information about future changes in policies
Shape future regardless of past
Provide insight into uncertainty
Methods of Forecasting
Quantittaive
based on hard data, statistic
repetitive occurrence, prepare for next
Qualitative
relies on opinion, judgment human being, panel do decision based on expert judgment
Actors
Policy administrator (gov agencies)
Policy makers (legislator)
Interest groups such as cabinet, ministries, council
Main element of Policy formulation
Analysis
Analysing courses action/proposals
Is is the action valid to solve, direct to the cause of problem
Implementable
Budget cost acceptable or not for the proposal
Type of policy option
Inducement
positive/negative in nature
reward/punishment eg: tax exemption/penalty
Regulatory
control /regulate people behaviour
Enforcement
Enforce certain rights/duties eg: human rights legislation
Allocation of power
Body involved : executive orders, judicial decision, MACC legislation
2.Authorisation by policy makers
Is it politically acceptable as to gain enough support from legislator
Acceptable by the public or not if passed by law
Done through political process: first reading, second reading, house of senate and YDPA consent