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CH13: Progress and Performance Measurement and Evaluation - Coggle Diagram
CH13: Progress and Performance Measurement and Evaluation
Learning Objectives
13-01 Identify the four steps for controlling a project.
13-02 Utilize a tracking Gantt to monitor time performance.
13-03 Understand and appreciate the significance of earned value management.
13-04 Calculate and interpret cost and schedule variance.
13-05 Calculate and interpret performance and percent indexes.
13-06 Forecast final project cost.
13-07 Identify and manage scope creep.
13.1 Structure of a Project Monitoring Information System
A project monitoring system involves
Determining
what data
to collect
Determining
how, when, and who will collect the data
Analysis
of the data
Reporting
current progress
What Data Are Collected?
The data need to answer questions such as
What is the
current status
of the project in terms of schedule and cost?
How much will it
cost to complete
the project?
When will the project be
completed
?
Are there
potential problems
that need to be addressed now?
What, who, and where are the
causes for cost or schedule overruns
?
If there is a cost overrun midway in the project, can we
forecast
the overrun at completion?
Collecting Data and Analysis
Will the data be
collected by
the project team, contractor, independent cost engineers, project manager?
Will the data
be derived electronically
from some form of surrogate data?
Should the
reporting period
be one hour, one day, one week, or what?
Is there a
central repository
for the data collected and is someone responsible for its
dissemination
?
Reports and Reporting
Who gets
the progress reports?
How
will the reports be
transmitted
?
When will the reports be
distributed
?
A common topic format for
progress reports
Progress
since last report
Current status
of project:
1)
schedule
2)
cost
3)
scope
Cumulative trends
Problems and issues
since last report:
1)
Actions and resolutions
of earlier problems
2)
New variances
and
problems identified
Corrective action planned
13.2 The Project Control Process
Control
Is the process of
comparing actual performance against plan
to identify
deviations
, evaluate
possible alternative courses
of actions, and take
appropriate corrective action
.
Project control steps for measuring and evaluating project performance
Setting a
baseline plan
Measuring
progress and performance
Comparing plan against actual
Taking
action
13.3 Monitoring Time Performance
Typical tools used for
communicating
project schedule status
Gantt chart
(bar chart) is the most favored, used, and understandable. It is commonly referred to as a tracking Gantt chart.
Control chart
is used to plot the difference between the scheduled and actual times on the
critical path
at a
given point
on the project.
Milestone schedules
are often used to keep more distal stakeholders informed on the progress of a project.
Milestones are significant project events that mark major accomplishments.
Baseline and Tracking Gantt Charts 實例
Project Schedule Control Chart 實例
13.4 Earned Value Management (EVM)
Earned Value Management
Is a methodology that
combines scope, schedule, and resource
measurement to assess project
performance and progress
.
Was pioneered by the
U.S. Department of Defense
(DoD) in the 1960s.
Uses several
acronyms
and
equations
for analysis.
Uses data developed from the
work breakdown structure, project network
, and
schedule
.
Starts with the
time-phased costs
that provide the
project budget baseline
, which is called the
planned budgeted value
of the work scheduled (PV). Then comparisons can be made with actual and planned schedule and costs.
Glossary of Terms
Developing an Integrated Cost/Schedule System
Define the work using a WBS.
Scope
Work package
Deliverables
Organization units
Resources
Budgets for each work package
Develop
work
and
resource schedule
.
Schedule resources to activities
Time-phase work packages into a network
Develop a
time-phased budget
using work packages included in an activity called the
planned budgeted cost of the work scheduled
(PV).
At the work package level, collect the actual costs for the work performed called the
actual cost of the work completed
(AC).
Multiple percent complete
with the original budget amount to be
earned value
(EV).
Compute the
schedule variance
(SV = EV – PV) and
cost variance
(CV = EV – AC).
Project Management Information System Overview 實例
Development of Project Baseline
Purposes of a
Baseline (PV)
To
measure and report progress
To
estimate cash flow
Rules in Assigning Costs
to the Baseline
Costs are placed (time-phased) in the baseline
exactly as managers expected them to be “earned.”
Percent complete
is the workhorse most commonly used. Someone familiar with each task estimates what percent of the task has been completed or how much of the task remains.
What Costs Are Included in Baselines?
Baseline is the sum of the
cost accounts
and each cost account is the sum of the
work packages
in the cost account.
Three direct costs
are typically included in
baselines—labor, equipment, and materials
.
Methods of Variance Analysis
Assessing current status of a project requires three data elements
Planned cost of the work
scheduled (PV)
Budgeted cost of the work
completed (EV)
Actual cost of the work
completed (AC)
Computing schedule variance (
SV
) and cost variance (
CV
)
A positive variance indicates a desirable condition, while a negative variance suggests problems or changes that have taken place.
Comparing
earned value
with
The
expected schedule value
The
actual costs
Variances
Cost variance (CV)
= EV – AC
Tells us if the
work accomplished costs
more or less than was planned at any point over the life of the project.
Schedule variance (SV)
= EV – PV
Presents an overall assessment of all work packages in the project scheduled to date.
Contains no critical path information.
Measures progress in dollars rather than time units.
Variance at completion (VAC)
= BAC – EAC
Suggests whether the costs at completion of the project will differ from what was planned.
Cost/Schedule Graph 實例
Earned Value Review Exercise 實例
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13.5 Developing a Status Report: A Hypothetical Example
Assumptions
Each cost account has only one work package, and each cost account will be represented as an activity on the network.
The project network early start times will serve as the basis for assigning the baseline values.
From the moment work on an activity task begins, some actual costs will be incurred each period until the activity is completed.
Work Breakdown Structure with Cost Accounts 實例
Digital Camera Prototype Project Baseline Gantt Chart實例
Digital Camera Prototype Project Baseline Budget ($000)
Digital Camera Prototype Status Reports: Periods 1–3實例
Digital Camera Prototype Status Reports: Periods 4–5
Digital Camera Prototype Status Reports: Periods 6–7
Digital Camera Prototype Summary Graph ($000) 實例
Digital Camera Project-Tracking Gantt Chart Showing Status—through Period 7 實例
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13.6 Indexes to Monitor Progress
Performance Indexes
Cost performance index (CPI) = EV/AC
Measures
cost efficiency
of the work accomplished to date
Scheduling performance index (SPI) = EV/PV
Measures
scheduling efficiency
to date
Project Percent Complete Indexes
Percent complete index budgeted costs (PCIB) = EV/BAC
Percent complete index actual costs (PCIC) = AC/EAC
Management reserve index (MRI) = CV/MR
Is popular in the
construction industry
Reflects the amount of management reserves that has been absorbed by cost overruns.
Interpretation of Indexes 實例
Indexes Periods 1–7 實例
Additional Earned Value Rules
Rule used gates before the total budgeted value of an activity can be claimed
Percent complete with weighted monitoring gates
Uses subjective estimated percent complete in combination with hard, tangible monitoring points.
Rules applied to
short-duration activities and/or small-cost activities
0/100 rule
Assumes 100% of the budget is earned when the work package is completed.
50/50 rule
Allows 50% of the value of the work package budget to be earned when it is started and 50% to be earned when the package is completed.
13.7 Forecasting Final Project Cost
Two methods used to
revise estimates
of future project costs
Revised estimated cost at completion (EACre)
Allows
experts
in the field to change original baseline durations and costs because new information tells them the original estimates are not accurate.
Forecasted total cost at completion (EACf)
Uses the
actual costs
to date plus an
efficiency index
(CPI=EV/AC) applied to the remaining project work.
Forecasting Models: EACre and EACf
Forecasted total cost at completion (EACf) = ETC + AC
= (Work remaining)/CPI + AC= (BAC − EV)/(EV/AC) + AC
where
ETC = estimated cost to complete remaining work
AC = cumulative actual cost of work completed to date
CPI = cumulative cost index to date
BAC = total budget of the baseline
EV = cumulative budgeted cost of work completed to date
Another Forecasting Index
To Complete Performance Index (TCPI) = (BAC − EV)/(BAC − AC)
Used as a supplement to the estimate at completion (EACf) computation.
Measures the
amount of value each remaining dollar in the budget must earn to stay within the budget.
A ratio less than 1.00 indicates an ability to complete the project without using all of the remaining budget.
Monthly Status Report 實例
13.8 Other Control Issues
Technical performance measurement
is as important as measuring schedule and cost performance.
Scope creep
causes problems because the “minor refinements” eventually build to be major scope changes.
Baseline changes should be
allowed only if it is clear that the project will fail without the change
, the project will be improved significantly with the change, or the customer wants it and will pay for it.
Data acquisition is time consuming and costly.
Scope Changes to a Baseline 實例
Conference Center WiFi Project Communication Plan實例
