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CHAPTER 9: DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY - Coggle Diagram
CHAPTER 9: DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY
Meeting the Challenge of Uncertainty
the assessment of risk is still based on very limited information
Have an uncertain outcome but innovation management tries to convert that uncertainty at the outset to something closer to a calculated risk
a balance between the risks involved and the potential rewards, which might follow if the innovation project is successful
The Funnel of Uncertainty
Planning Under Uncertainty
Planning under uncertainty is inherently an optimization problem: plans of good quality tend to be hard to find, and plans found easily tend to be poor specially under uncertainty
A typical formal business plan
1.Details of the product or service
2.Assessment of the market opportunity.
3.Identification of target customers
4.Barriers to entry and competitor analysis
5.Experience, expertise and commitment of the management team
6.Strategy for pricing, distribution and sales
7.Identification and planning for key risks.
8.Cash-flow calculation, including break-even points and sensitivity
9.Financial and other resource requirements of the business
Common Problems with Business Plans by Robert
1.marketing plan
2.management team
3.technology plan
4.financial plan.
Forecasting Innovation
Customer or Market Surveys
-A method of soliciting customer feedback so organizations can measure customer satisfaction, understand their expectations, and conduct market research.
Definition: The forecasts are a substantial part of any “Business Plan”. Forecasting is a valuable input to strategic and policy decision making and planning especially under conditions of environmental uncertainty.
External Analysis (Delphi)
Process by which businesses objectively assess the changes in their industry and the broader world that could affect their current business operations
-Method used where the consensus opinion is required at the time of hope, probability and identification of the purpose of future technology or consumer needs and factors that may affect their achievement
Internal Analysis (Brainstorming)
-Process of analyzing various internal components of the company both tangible and intangible like; company’s processes, assets, and resources
Brainstorming (MS) is one of the effective means of creative group activity, which is very suitable for innovation, approach or technique can be an effective way of generating many ideas
Scenario Development
-Powerful method to explore potential futures based on the interaction of current trends and possible future events that can be resource-intensive, but is inclusive and transparent and therefore persuasive and support action
Estimating the Demand for Innovation
-Demand is a factor that enables companies to produce and actively think about innovative ideas to increase demand in the market so estimating amounts of money should be determine for demand of their products and services in the market
Accessing Risk, Recognizing Uncertainty
Risk of Probability
A risk management tool that shows probability and impact, to help determine probability of occurrence and the impact of risks on project objectives it occurs.
Perceptions of Risk
Examine the judgments people make when they are asked to characterize and evaluate hazardous activities and technologies
Accessing Opportunities for Innovation
Financial Assessment of Projects
A standard methodology for evaluating a project’s financial viability, from an investor’s perspective.
How to Evaluate Learning
Use data to inform evaluation practices and utilize data analysis techniques in order to evaluate innovative educational initiatives
How Practicing Managers Cope
-Be attentive and more innovative
-Continuous manager performance evaluation in innovation
Decision Making at the Edge
Selection and Reframing
-Selection is a structured method which helps you choose the best ideas to develop and test, based on their viability and ability to create value for your business
-Reframing is a critical tool for promoting innovation and creativity in the workplace and it is very effective for problem solving
Mapping the Selection Space
-Prescribed way of assigning the physical accessibility of the building and specific rooms for doing the innovation project or place to held the event
