INDIA-CENTRAL ASIA by Atrishekhar sir
● Trade at US $ 2bn
● India’s extended neighbourhood
Challenges
Significance for India
● Energy security
● Geostrategic importance
● Common challenges like drugs, extremism
● Agricultural cooperation
● Trade & investment
Steps by India
BACKGROUND
● Defense agreement with Tajikistan
● Civil nuclear cooperation with Kaz
● TAPI
● Grants under high impact community development project
● INSTC, chabahar, ashgabat agreement
● Untapped trade potential
● Geopolitics of energy
● Volatile security scenario
History of engagement: India and Central Asia share a long history of engagement since 3rd century B.C.
:
The Kushan Empire was expanded across the modern Central Asia region.
Since Ancient times India and Central Asia are connected through Silk route which have facilitated exchange of ideas, thoughts and philosophy.
Spices, cotton, silk etc were the main traded commodities which enhanced economic integration between these regions
Origin of Mughals can be traced back to Central Asia (Babur came from valley of Fergana) and many prominent personalities like Al Biruni , Amir Khusro and Sufi saints played vital role in spreading Islamic culture in India
The shared interests were also articulated through a ‘Look North Policy’ that emphasized shared concerns along with a desire to ‘promote stability and cooperation without causing harm to any third country.’
New Delhi signed the Strategic Partnership Agreements (SPA) in 2012 with Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to stimulate defence cooperation and deepen trade relations
Mineral resources
Kazakhstan has the largest uranium reserves in the world.
Uzbekistan, along with Kyrgyzstan, is a significant regional producer of gold
Apart from oil deposits, Tajikistan has huge hydropower capacity
Turkmenistan has the world's fourth largest gas reserves.
Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are both on the Caspian coastline, promising to open the door to other Caspian states that are rich in oil.
Central Asia lies in the middle of the Eurasian Continent and can help India achieve connectivity to Europe.
international transport corridors such as the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).
India has joined the Ashgabat Agreement in February 2018 and the TIR Convention in 2017.
In 2008, Kazakhstan supported India in obtaining India-specific exemption to allow civil nuclear cooperation with the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) countries
Trade and investment potential: Central Asia's economic growth, especially in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, has sparked a construction boom and sectors such as IT, pharmaceuticals and tourism have been expanding.
The area also has a strong demand for Indian pharmaceutical products.
URANIUM
In 2015, with their earlier deal having expired, India and Kazakhstan signed a new agreement for the purchase of 5000 tonnes of Kazakh Uranium until the end of 2019.
Currently, both sides are negotiating a third agreement, as part of which Kazakhstan is planning to increase its supplies to India to 7500-10000 tonnes.
India also signed a uranium supply agreement with Uzbekistan.
geographically, Central Asia acts as a bridge between the various regions of Asia and between Europe and Asia.
New trade routes between India and Central Asia have been opened, bypassing Pakistan, with the Chabahar Agreement with Iran in effect.
It has been reported that, the only foreign military airbase in India, controlled by the IAF and the Tajik Air Force, is in Farkhor (Tajikistan).
Golden Crescent' illicit drug trade in opium cultivation (Iran-Pak-Afghan) and are also victims of the illicit weapons trade.
Furthermore, religious extremism, fundamentalism and terrorism continue to pose threats to regional stability.
Weak connectivity has also led to India and Central Asia's below-par trade.
The unpredictable situation in Afghanistan
Chinese presence
The Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) initiative involves Central Asia. In addition, the danger posed by the spill-over of Islamic radicalization to the Uighurs in Xinjiang province has led China to become well entrenched in Central Asian security affairs, thus indirectly affecting India's interests
Kyrgyzstan has turned to China for debt relief to deal with the economic impact of the pandemic
Turkmenistan owes at least US$ 8 billion in loans to China and the latter holds roughly 50 percent of Tajikistan’s US$ 2.8 billion foreign debt.
China has been expanding its regional presence through SCO and the ‘5+1 format’ launched in 2020 to further its clout.
Radicalism and extremism
Drug trafficking;
Poor economic relations- India’s current trade figure of about USD 100 billion with the SCO members is also grotesquely asymmetric – about 90 billion is with China, 8 billion with Russia and 1.5 billion with the Central Asia states of which 1 billion is with Kazakhstan
International North South Transport Corridor(INSTC): India, Iran and Russia in 2000 launched INSTC to develop a new trade route that would help in cutting the costs and time in moving cargo between Russia and India.
It is a 7,200-kilometre multi-modal project with thousands of kilometres of all-weather highways. Many countries have now come on board which include Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Central Asia, and several European countries.
Chabahar port initiative: In 2003, India and Iran announced the development of the Chabahar port. This was launched to serve as an alternate route to Central Asia.
But repeated US sanctions on Iran for its suspected nuclear programme meant that Indian firms were reluctant to participate in the projects, leading to cost and time overruns.
Ashgabat Agreement: The pact was signed in 2011 by Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Oman and Qatar and aimed at developing the shortest trade route between the Central Asian republics and Iranian and Omani ports. India joined the Ashgabat agreement in 2018 to diversify its connectivity options with Central Asia.
”Khanjar” is annual joint military exercise between India and Kyrgystan.
“Kazind” is annual joint military exercise between India and Kazakhastan
Development Cooperation
Development Cooperation between India and Central Asia has focused on Lines of Credit that financed development and manufacturing projects
The training programs under the Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) Programme, which started in the early 1990s, continue to flourish in the region.
Grants to Tajikistan have included funding to rehabilitate and modernise the Varzob-1 Hydro Power Plant through the Indian Public Sector Units Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) and the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation.
India has focused on providing basic training and skill development to local people through tool room training centres.
There are plans to set up a medical and educational E-Network for the five countries in the Central Asian region based on the model of the Pan African e-Network, which provides remote medical and educational support to hospitals and universities in African countries
CULTURAL TIES
Indian Cinema and TV serials are popular with Turkmen people. Similarly, Indian music also holds a special place in the hearts of Turkmen people.
Turkmenistan for participation in International Scientific Conference and festival “Ancient Cradle of Musical Art” organized by State Cultural Centre of Turkmenistan in April, 2018
In Tashkent there is a school named after Lal Bahadur Shastri, and also there are streets of Mahatma Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru.
There is sharp increase of number of the Indian tourists to Uzbekistan. Monuments of Samarkand, Bukhara, Khiva and Shakhrizyabs are listed in the cultural heritage of UNESCO.
To further deepen and widen these cultural linkages, Swami Vivekananda Cultural Centre in Dushanbe offers courses in Kathak&Tabla through teachers deployed by ICCR from India. The centre also offers Hindi language classes
INSTC
India, Iran and Russia had in September 2000 signed the INSTC agreement to build a corridor to provide the shortest multi-model transportation route linking the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf to the Caspian Sea via Iran and St Petersburg. ‘
It is a 7,200-km-long multi-mode network of ship, rail, and road route for moving freight.
Regions involved: India, Iran, Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia and Europe.
From St Petersburg, North Europe is within easy reach via the Russian Federation. The estimated capacity of the corridor is 20-30 million tonnes of goods per year.
The route primarily involves moving freight from India, Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia via ship, rail and road.
The objective of the corridor is to increase trade connectivity between major cities such as Mumbai, Moscow, Tehran, Baku, Bandar Abbas, Astrakhan, Bandar Anzali and etc.
LATEST
India’s engagement with Central Asian countries (CA) is crucial for various reasons, including security cooperation after the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan, countering China’s influence, plans for connectivity with Europe, meeting energy needs, and old cultural links and trade potentia
Since early 2022, India and CA countries have established a multi-level periodic engagement framework, including a leaders’ summit every two years, regular meetings among foreign and trade ministers, a joint working group on Afghanistan, joint counter-terrorism exercises, and a group to operationalize the use of Chabahar port by all five countries.
India aims to avoid the Chinese influence in Central Asia’s post-Soviet space by engaging with five CA countries and focusing on integrating the INSTC with Chabahar port in Iran
The INSTC aims to move goods from Mumbai to Shahid Beheshti Port – Chabahar (Iran) by sea, from Chabahar to Bandar-e-Anzali (an Iranian port on the Caspian Sea) by road, and then to Astrakhan (port in the Russian Federation) by ship across the Caspian Sea. Western sanctions on Iran and Russia have renewed interest in the INSTC project.
The concerns highlighted during the first NSA-level meeting in New Delhi on 6 December 2022 discussed the challenges of extremism, terrorism, and radicalization in the region
Second India-Central Asia NSAs meeting took place on the 17th of October 2023.
There was a proposal to set up an India-Central Asia Rare Earths Forum to escape possible partnerships in the domain of rare earth and strategic minerals.
India offers to set up digital payment systems in central Asian nations
Doval asked the Central Asian countries to utilise Chabahar port in Iran and its terminals which are operated by an Indian Company for maritime trade.
pointed out that the linkages between terrorism and drug trafficking were a serious menace.
India needs to pursue its ‘Connect Central Asia’ policy with greater vigour and energy by accelerating the implementation of High Impact Community Development Projects (HICDPs) for socioeconomic development in Central Asian countries.
Indian Army and Indian Air Force (IAF) contingent comprising 120 personnel are taking part in the 7th edition of Joint Military "Exercise KAZIND-2023". The Exercise is being conducted at Otar, Kazakhstan from 30 October to 11 November 2023.