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Janice Gross Stein, “How not to think like a hegemon," International…
Janice Gross Stein, “How not to think like a hegemon," International Affairs 98, no. 5 (Sep/Oct 2022): 1615-1633.
Nine possible worlds
The biggest challenge to world piece isn’t from rising powers, but from leaders who fear the challenger or the decline. Regional power is an important counter to hegemony.
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US and China each have best, middling, and worst case outcomes that when matched agains each other, lead to the nine possible outcomes.
Thucydides power trap: in 16 cases of challenge to hegemony, most end in war
Preventive war waged by the declining hegemony to prevent the rise of the upstart challenger: could result in success or failure
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Depending on the variables used, you end up with different answers to the same questions. Why? P. 10
Alternative theory: the hegemony requires not just power, but shared understanding of data. P. 11.
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Two theories p. 8.
Hegemonic decline and rising challenger(military and economic ideas): p. 8. —> preventive war by hegemony
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For Biden, China will never become the hegemony… and the US will rally the democracies agains this outcome. P. 7.
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