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U4AOS2: ARMED CONFLICT IN UKRAINE - Coggle Diagram
U4AOS2: ARMED CONFLICT IN UKRAINE
OVERVIEW
Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, tensions between Russia and Ukraine have increased, coming to a head in February of 2022 with the invasion of Ukraine under a special military operation announced by putin.
Putins goal was to ‘demilitarise and de-nazify Ukraine’ to protect people subjected to the ‘8 years of bullying and genocide by Ukraines government’.
KEY ASPECTS OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE
war as an instrument of state policy
Occasions where war is conducted as a deliberate use of violence by a state to achieve its foreign policy objectives.
The russian state is using war as an instrument of state policy to achieve its foreign policy objectives such as:
Regime change in Ukraine
Limit NATO expansion
Maintain russia's dominance in supplying gas to europe by seizing strategic ukrainian gas reserves
Gain and maintain sovereignty over the crimean peninsula
Maidan revolution:
In 2013 the pro Russian government of Viktor Yanukovych was replaced during the Maidan revolution with a pro European regime under Zelenski.
Having a pro western government bordering Russia was seen as a threat to russia's national security and economic prosperity, additionally complicated by the fact that russia's gas supplies flow through Ukraine.
Protect ethnic Russians:
Putin has stated that one key objective of his war in Ukraine is to ‘demilitarise and de-nazify’ ukraine. Putin has claimed that ethnic Russians face ‘genocide perpetrated by the Kyiv regime’.
limit NATO expansion
In 2004 the baltic states joined NATO allowing for NATO and NATO forces to push right to the Russian border. This is a major threat to Russian security as NATO was created to defend against Russian aggression.
This war has been used as an instrument of state policy with the aim to stop NATO expansion into Ukraine, stop an expanded NATO border and create a friendly buffer state between Russia and NATO.
gas
Russia's economy relies on its natural resources, particularly Gas, which is central to their national security and economic prosperity. Therefore they have chosen war as an instrument of state policy to achieve this.
Despite heavy sanctions and a reduction in use of Russian gas by Europe, the steep price increase caused by the war has led to increased revenue to Russia for gas supplies.
crimea
Crimea is a strategically important peninsula in the black sea that has been fought over by different powers for centuries. Controlling Crimea allows you to dominate the black sea.
intervention
State military involvement in or occupation of another state.
foreign imposed regime change
Regime change or FIRC occurs when one state's military intervenes in another state in order to impose a change of government in that state. While Russia's aims are unclear, they have stated that FIRC is their ultimate goal and therefore the Ukraine war can be viewed as an example of intervention as a key aspect of global armed conflict.
US intervention
The US has intervened on the request of Ukraine in an attempt to prevent regime change and the occupation of ukraine. While this intervention has been a military one that has utilised US military power, it has not been an intervention which has seen direct involvement in US combatants. The US intervention has primarily focused on arming the Ukrainian military.
Defending Ukraine sovereignty act 2022 was passed by US congress and provides $40 billion in aid.
US WEAPONS BEING PROVIDED
HIMAR rocket systems
155mm howitzer artillery systems
Javelin anti tank weapons
Switchblade drones
intelligence
prosecuting war crimes in international law
By prosecuting the perpetrators of war crimes in international law, the global community could theoretically discourage armed conflict in the future and mitigate the potential severity of the current crises.
NATO
Nato is not getting directly involved in terms of sending soldiers to fight in ukraine. They are instead providing economic support.
Individual nato countries however are sending weapons, ammunition and military equipment such as anti air systems, howitzers and drones.
Nato no fly zone.
Nato has drawn the line at direct intervention and, along with the US have rejected calls for a no fly zone. A no fly zone has been used to protect civilians in many global conflicts and involves military air power to deny an aggressor control over the skies.
AUSTRALIA RESPONSE
Australia has been supporting nato with military aid. In particular. Australia has been sending military troop carriers known as bush masters.
CAUSES OF THE UKRAINE WAR
democratic peace theory
This theory suggests that democracies are less likely to engage with conflict against each other.
This theory does not necessarily state that democracies are more peaceful, however that any conflict entered in is against non democratic states.
Thus the democratic backsliding that occurred in Russia under Putin where Russia is now considered an authoritarian state has contributed to the conflict in the sense that had Russia remained democratic war with Ukraine would be unlikely.
Realists are sceptical about the validity of this theory.
NATO expansion
The expansion of NATO is a key cause of the conflict in Ukraine, in particular the fear that the Russian regime held that NATO would continue to expand eastward.
Russia's claims that NATO has not kept its assurances, made at the culmination of the cold war, that NATO would not expand eastward and threaten russia.
Having Ukraine join NATO would be untenable to Russian security as NATO would have a direct border with russia. Ukraine's open flat terrain makes it strategically difficult to defend from any potential NATO aggression.
russian nationalism
Putin does not accept Ukraine as an independent sovereign state or nation. Putin holds the view that Kiev is the birthplace of the modern Russian state. Ukraine was historically a part of the Russian empire.
The Maidan uprising in 2004 and the subsequent shift of Ukrainian foreign policy from one friendly to Russian to one that embraces the West was a direct affront to Putin and his view of Ukrainian and Russian history.
gas and other resources
Ukraine is rich in resources such as gas and agriculture. Ukrainian gas reserves in particular cause a risk to Russia's economic prosperity and economic power. Large reserves of gas were discovered in eastern Ukraine prior to the maiden revolution and if these reserves are able to be exploited by Ukraine and exported to Europe, Russia's position as Europe's largest gas supplier could be threatened.