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Analytic Confidence, Communicating Analytic Confidence, Intelligence Gaps …

- - - - examine key assumptions or knowledge base for a likelihood direction
      - explain possible paths and describe indicators in each path
      - review and update collection and knowledge bases
      - execute a different analytic approach or collaboration to gain insight
- - - - a. how do we determine which source is critical?
      - b. what is the basis by which we make this dicision?
  - - - items are uncorroborated information from good or marginal sources (a mix of semi-vetted sources that have been somewhat accurate and/or new, unproven sources) with minimal databases; historical understanding of the issue, or subject matter expertise;
      - high potential for deception exists;
      - key assumptions critical to the analysis are used to fill gaps; and
      - reasoning is dominated by weak inferences developed through few analytic techniques or methodologies.
    - - items are partially corroborated information from good sources (a mix of proven and semi-proven sources who have been fairly accurate) with some databases and/or historical understanding of the issue, or subject matter expertise;
      - moderate potential for deception exists;
      - assumptions potentially critical to the analysis are used to fill gaps; and
      - reasoning has a mixture of strong and weak inferences developed through simple analytic techniques or an established methodology.
    - - the assessment uses well-corroborated information from proven sources, extensive databases, and/or historical understanding of the issue, or subject matter expertise;
      - low potential for deception exists;
      - assumptions used to fill gaps are not critical to the analysis; and
      - reasoning is dominated by strong logical inferences developed through multiple analytic techniques or an established, repeatable methodology.
- - - - CAP refers to intelligence products containing an assessment that qualify for ODNI evaluation against ICD 203 and feedback to the authoring organization.
- - - - gaps and assumptions
      - evidence and source reliability
      - argumentation
- - - - a sourcing issue
      - occur when evidence is mission, incomplete, or inconclusive
      - are due to insufficient collection capabilities and priorites
  - - - not a sourcing issue
      - can be resolved from an analysis of the evidence
      - are normally due to lack of time, capability, or priorities
    - - likelihood
      - drivers -> indicate something that must be assessed
      - impact
      - trends