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Analysis of Alternatives - Coggle Diagram
Analysis of Alternatives
MSOB
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- Describe how ACH supports AoA
- Recognize when to use AoA as part of analytic process
- Recognize how to present alternatives
- Present the alternatives using the AW
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Define AoA
ICD 203: ...the systematic evaluation of differing hypotheses to explain events or phenomena, explore near-term outcomes, and imagine possible futures in order to mitigate surprise and risk.
AoA is used to evaluate the plausibility of alternative hypotheses and the implications of those alternatives.
Purpose of AoA
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Robust intelligence tradecraft requires analysts to consider alternative explanations or multiple meanings for the same set of information.
Generating multiple hypotheses allows you to evaluate reasonable alternatives. This helps gain maximum insight and the best answer to a question of judgement.
The AoA helps refine our assessments, identify and overcome biases and hidden assumptions, and minimize analytic surprise. Additionally, AoA will aid you to avoid satisficing. All of this enables more cogent intelligence and better understanding of a problem.
Review of ACH
Analytic process that:
- Identifies a complete set of alt. HYPs
- Systematically evaluates evidence that is C or I with HYPs
- has a goal to refute and reject HYPs using evidence
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ACH and AoA
ACH can be the source of hypotheses that are later evaluated as alternatives to the assessment using the AoA process.
The hypothesis with the next smallest number of inconsistencies is called the least inconsistent alternative hypothesis. The least inconsistent alternative hypothesis is the one that will undergo the AoA process.
When to use AoA
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Include AoA when:
- Consequences of a less likely scenario, if it occurred, would significantly impact US interests
- Key assumptions, if wrong, would have significant consequences for US DoD interests
- Availible information is especially ambiguous, contradictory or dated
- Analysts differ in their assessment of the same information
- The issue is unstable or highly sensitive to external factors
- The assessment projects beyond what the reporting can inform, at present or into future.
:arrow_up: These first two reasons :arrow_up: expose the absolute necessity to understand your customer's mission, and more specifically the threat the alternate hypothesis/hypotheses would pose to their interests!
Process of an AoA
3 Questions to ask:
- Which plausible alternative(s) should I present?
You'll select the next least inconsistent alternative(s) with any supporting evidence. It is always important to consider the customer's needs when selecting an alternative hypothesis.
- Why are the alternative(s) plausible?
Consider
- Why is the alternative less likely than the original claim?
- What evidence, assumptions, or reasoning do you have that influenced your selection (evidence for or against, basic assumptions, sourcing, gaps, etc)
- Consider low probability, but high impact (black swan :bird: event) alternative and we must include them due to their severity.
- What is the impact if an alternative turns out to be true?
It's important to identify the potential implications of that alternative. It's also important to gather evidence that makes the alternative more accurate than the original claim.
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Presenting the AoA
First :arrow_right: clearly articulate the main assessment, highlighting why it is most likely, and what uncertainties surround the judgement
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Evaluating an AoA
- Make sure the AoA is included
- Make sure the AoA answers the 3 key questions
- Consider using the ODNI rating scale