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To what extent is mathematical modelling able to accurately predict risk…

- - - - The infectious rate, , controls the rate of spread which represents the probability of transmitting disease between a susceptible and an infectious individual.
        Recovery rate, = 1/D, is determined by the average duration, D, of infection. For the SIRS model, is the rate which recovered individuals return to the susceptible statue due to loss of immunity.
      - The SIR model was first used by Kermack and McKendrick in 1927
    - - The infectious rate, , controls the rate of spread which represents the probability of transmitting disease between a susceptible and an infectious individual. Recovery rate, = 1/D, is determined by the average duration, D, of infection.
    - - The infectious rate, , controls the rate of spread which represents the probability of transmitting disease between a susceptible and an infectious individual. The incubation rate, , is the rate of latent individuals becoming infectious (average duration of incubation is 1/). Recovery rate, = 1/D, is determined by the average duration, D, of infection. For the SEIRS model, is the rate which recovered individuals return to the susceptible statue due to loss of immunity
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