Reasoning and Decision Making
Deductive Reasoning
Inductive Reasoning
Syllogisms
Categorical syllogisms
Conditional syllogisms
Valid syllogisms
Invalid syllogisms
Conclusion follows logically from 2 valid premises
Conclusion doesn't follow logically from 2 valid premises
All about that categorical overlap
Mental Model Approach
Create a model of a situation
Generate tentative conclusions about model
Like drawing the model on paper, except you just do it in your head
Look for exceptions to falsify model
Determine validity of syllogism
2 premises + Conclusion
2 premises + conclusion
1st premise is always an "If... Then..."
Can be abstract or concrete
Abstract ('p' and 'q')
Concrete (real life e.g.)
Antecedent = "if" / "p" term
Consequent = "then" / "q" term
4 Forms (all depend on the 2nd premise)
Valid!
- Denying the Consequent
- Affirming the Antecedent
Invalid!
Modus ponens
Modus tollens
- Affirming the Consequent
- Denying the Antecedent
Errors in Judging Validity
Categorical syllogisms
Atmosphere effect (word usage)
Effect of real world e.g.s (easier to judge)
Belief bias
Conditional Reasoning
Wason Four-Card Problem
The Falsification Principle!
Permission schema
Satisfy A ==> Carry out B
Used in concrete versions
Ppl are familiar w/ the rules
Evolutionary Perspectives on Cognition
Natural Selection
Social-Exchange Theory
Wason Task
Proposed to be governed by built-in cog program that detects cheating
Better detection of cheating ==> Better survival
Premises and Conclusions?
.Conclusions are suggested
Premises are based on observations
Do not definitely follow from premises
Generalise w/ varying degrees of certainty
Plausible, but not necessarily definite
Factors Affecting the Strength of an Inductive Argument
Representativeness of observations
Number of observations
Quality of observations/evidence
Why use Inductive Reasoning?
Most likely to occur in real life
Science
Everyday Life
Make hypotheses and general conclusions
Based on previously collected evidence
Predictions based on observations of what's happened in the past
Heuristics for Everyday Life
Availability heuristic
Representativeness heuristic
Conjunction rule
Easy to remember --> "More probable"
E.g. if Wattpad authors can get published, so can I XD
Evaluating probability of event based on similarity to previous/past event
How well does A resemble B?
Use base rate info (if that's all that's available)
Use descriptive info (if available) --> disregard base rate info
A barrier to accurate reasoning
Probability of A + B can't be higher than the probability of A or B alone
Probability of conjunction (of 2 events) can't be higher than the probability of the single constituents/components alone
Confirmation bias
People see(k) what they want to see
"People like to be told what they already know" - Terry Pratchett
Decision Making
Expected Utility Theory
The Influence of Emotions
The Framing Effect
The Physiology of Thinking
Ppl are rational...
W/ all relevant info, ppl will make a decision that results in max expected utility/benefit/advantage
Advantage: possible to determine the choice to ensure the best result
Lol rational humans- what a joke
BUT we often ignore this lol
Expected emotions
Immediate emotions
How we think we'll feel, following the decision we make
What we actually feel when we make the decision
Integral immediate emotions
Incidental immediate emotions
Associated w/ the act of decision making
e.g. anxiety
Not directly related to the act of decision making
Still has an impact on decision making process
E.g. mood created in tv studio for a show like 'Deal or No Deal'
We want to maintain the positive and avoid the negative
BUT expected and actual emotions don't always line up
When we can't accurately predict our emotions, we incorrectly anticipate how we feel about diff outcomes --> tendency to avoid risks
Presentation matters
Opt-In Procedure
Strategies
Ppl take an active step in deciding to do something
Opt-Out Procedure
Ppl take action only if they don't want to do something
E.g. organ donation- proposed that this kind of procedure = more organ donors
Risk-Aversion Strategy
Risk-Taking Strategy
Choice framed in terms of gains
We avoid risk when choice is framed in terms of something we're going to get (play it safe)
We prefer sure gains, over possible gains (#LittleWins)
Choice framed in terms of losses
We prefer possible loss over sure loss
Neuroeconomics
Ultimatum Game (Sanfey et al., 2003)
Non-WEIRD cultures will almost always accept the offer (because why wouldn't you pass up money????)
Played w/ a Human
Utility theory suggests --> Responder should accept all proposals
Higher split --> Less likely to accept the deal
Played w/ a Computer
Often rejected lower offers because they thought they were unfair (made them angry)
Less angry w/ an 'unfair' computer
Didn't mind responding rationally