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Chapter 10 - Coggle Diagram
Chapter 10
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all of these techniques use factual information about the present and the past to help provide educated guesses about what would occur if certain assumptions were to hold
a population estimate is an assessment of a population’s size or other characteristics at a present or near-future date, for which we have no immediately current information
central date: the point in time (usually the most recent point) for which authoritative data on demographic characteristics exists
A projection depicts likely population characteristics at a future date based on a set of explicitly stated assumptions about what is expected to occur between the time the projection is made and the date to which it applies
a forecast is neither fact nor sheer fiction rather, it is an assessment of a future state of affairs
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an estimate is an attempt at arriving at the size of the current population based on data that reflect current or recent conditions
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arithmetic growth: assumes that the rate of change between two dates will be constant throughout the interval
geometric growth: populations expanded in a geometric series (in which the rate of change itself increases)
exponential growth: comparable to interest compounded daily, or even hourly
logistic growth: neither absolute growth nor growth rates remain constant over the period under observation
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cohort survival is employed to estimate the size of each cohort and of the population 10 years later
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administrative records method: used by the Census Bureau to estimate the sizes of state, county, and sub county populations
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the components method does allow one to come closer to reality than most other approaches, but it still has limitations
matrix-based methods: computationally most efficient when projecting large populations over long periods with the use of computer programs
projections suggest what might be the case five, 10, or more years from the projection date.
As in the case of projections, population forecasts can apply to the short, middle, and long term
In addition to relying more on numeric data, quantitative approaches often assume that past trends in population characteristics will continue into the future