Population Estimates, Projections, and Forecasts
&
Population Policy: Controlling Demographic Processes

APPROACHES TO ANTICIPATING POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS

Among the most frequently used are predict, estimate, project, and forecast

central date

The point in time (usually the most recent point) for which authoritative data on demographic characteristics exists, such as Census years 1980, 1990, 2000

POPULATION ESTIMATION

Several methods of estimation are used by government census offices and academic and private researchers

Simple Growth Models

The simple growth model approach seeks to determine the unknown size of a population

Arithmetic Growth

Pt = P0 + (P0 × GR × t).

Geometric Growth

Pt = P0 × (1 + GR)t

Exponential Growth

Pt = P0 × eGR × t

Components Methods

Pt = P0 + B – D or P0 = Pt – B + D

MATRIX-BASED APPROACHES TO POPULATION PROJECTION

Matrix-based methods were popularized by the leading U.S. demographer Nathan Keyfitz (1968, 1977).

P0 × L = Pt

THE NATURE OF POPULATION POLICY: DEFINITION AND CASE STUDIES

Population policies are intended to achieve a specified goal or a set of objectives by manipulating one or more variables such as fertility, mortality, or migration.

WHY ARE POPULATION POLICIES NECESSARY?

The need for population policies is inherent in modern-day living. Industrialization, technological innovation, expanded educational opportunities, and rapid urban growth have vastly expanded our capacity to create, to consume, and to destroy

Children, Families, and Communities

Around the time of the 1968 U.N. Human Rights Conference in Teheran and the appearance of Paul Ehrlich’s The Population Bomb (1968), Garrett Hardin dramatically brought this contradiction to the attention of the public

The Legal Dimension: Policy Implementation and Fertility Determinants

Thus we find that a principal answer to the question of why population policies are created is that they are believed to help achieve desirable living standards and to prevent the erosion or collapse of economic and social systems

IMMIGRATION POLICY

When one mentions population policies, we almost automatically think of familyplanning programs and similar approaches to fertility limitation

Stages of the Policy Process

(1) agenda setting, (2) decision making, and (3) implementation.