Population Estimates, Projections, and Forecasts
&
Population Policy: Controlling Demographic Processes
APPROACHES TO ANTICIPATING POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS
Among the most frequently used are predict, estimate, project, and forecast
central date
The point in time (usually the most recent point) for which authoritative data on demographic characteristics exists, such as Census years 1980, 1990, 2000
POPULATION ESTIMATION
Several methods of estimation are used by government census offices and academic and private researchers
Simple Growth Models
The simple growth model approach seeks to determine the unknown size of a population
Arithmetic Growth
Pt = P0 + (P0 × GR × t).
Geometric Growth
Pt = P0 × (1 + GR)t
Exponential Growth
Pt = P0 × eGR × t
Components Methods
Pt = P0 + B – D or P0 = Pt – B + D
MATRIX-BASED APPROACHES TO POPULATION PROJECTION
Matrix-based methods were popularized by the leading U.S. demographer Nathan Keyfitz (1968, 1977).
P0 × L = Pt
THE NATURE OF POPULATION POLICY: DEFINITION AND CASE STUDIES
Population policies are intended to achieve a specified goal or a set of objectives by manipulating one or more variables such as fertility, mortality, or migration.
WHY ARE POPULATION POLICIES NECESSARY?
The need for population policies is inherent in modern-day living. Industrialization, technological innovation, expanded educational opportunities, and rapid urban growth have vastly expanded our capacity to create, to consume, and to destroy
Children, Families, and Communities
Around the time of the 1968 U.N. Human Rights Conference in Teheran and the appearance of Paul Ehrlich’s The Population Bomb (1968), Garrett Hardin dramatically brought this contradiction to the attention of the public
The Legal Dimension: Policy Implementation and Fertility Determinants
Thus we find that a principal answer to the question of why population policies are created is that they are believed to help achieve desirable living standards and to prevent the erosion or collapse of economic and social systems
IMMIGRATION POLICY
When one mentions population policies, we almost automatically think of familyplanning programs and similar approaches to fertility limitation
Stages of the Policy Process
(1) agenda setting, (2) decision making, and (3) implementation.