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Population Estimates, Projections, & Forecasts - Coggle Diagram
Population Estimates, Projections, & Forecasts
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Prediction- virtually identical to an explanation, it is the outcome of a strict deductive process that need not even apply to the future at all
"Central Date"-the date (often a Census year, such as 2000) on which population estimates are based; the point of the procedure is to update central date infomration
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Components Method- 1) known population size at an earlier or later date, or both, and 2) volume of births, deaths, in-migrations, & out-migrations that occur between dates
Cohort Survival Method- a technique of estimation and projection based on the life table in which observed birth & death rates are assumed to hold into the future
Cohort Survival- is employed to estimate the size of each cohort and of the population 10 years later, it estimates age-specific measures over time
Methods of Projection
Extrapolation from Simple Growth Models- the process of estimating or projecting from a central date that assumes that growth will continue according to one of the growth models
Projecting with the Components Method- ability to determine not only the likely future population size but also age and sex distributions
Matrix-Based Approaches to Population Projection- leading U.S. demographer Nathan Keyfitz; computationally most efficient when projecting large populations over long periods with the use of computer programs
