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Population Estimates, Projections, and Forecasts - Chapter 10 - Coggle…
Population Estimates, Projections, and Forecasts - Chapter 10
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Population Estimation
Simple Growth Model: seeks to determine the unknown size of a population. 4 different types of models.
Arithmetic Growth: AKA Linear Model assumes that the rate of change between two dates will be constant throughout the interval.
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Geometric Growth: The basis for estimates and projections that assumes a periodic increase in the rate of growth between two dates.
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Exponential Growth: The basis for estimates and projections that assume a continual increase in the rate of growth between two dates.
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Logistic Growth: The basis for estimates and projections that assumes that the rate of growth increases to a maximum and then decreases until it nears or reaches ZPG.
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k = estimate of the largest population size attainable over the observation period, based on but usually larger than P0
b = estimated constant that represents the length of time between P0 and the point at which growth begins to slow.
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Cohort Survival Method: A technique of estimation and projection based on the life table in which observed birth and death rates are assumed to hold into the future.
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Methods of Projection
Extrapolation: The process of estimating or projecting from a central date that assumes that growth will continue according to one of the growth rates
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