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Decision Making - Coggle Diagram
Decision Making
Experiments
Empirical claims
Evidence
Survey, Focus group, Study
Data
Controlled Experiments
- Controlling one or more 'input' variables,
- holding all other variables constant (to the best of your ability),
- Measure the effect that the variation on the input variable has on one or more output variables.
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Gold Box @ Amazon [Advertise new product categories by giving offers for users who haven't bought such items]
- TaskRabbit: Badge, Status and Placement of participants
- Soda preferences
- eLearning effectiveness vs Conventional
Evidence Evaluation
Statistical Pitfalls
- Correlation is not Causation
- Observation bias
(aka "the Hawthorne effect")
To avoid
the Observation bias:
- A/B testing
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- Participants' selection
- Data Analysis
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Biases
- Cognitive bias
- Empathy study
- Black Swan
- Occam's Razor
Organization Issues [1) Data collection ii) Interpretation, iii) Analysis]
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Weak aspects to analyse
- Logical structure of the problem
- List of Outcome options
- Object Functions / Set of Criteria
- Forecast Outcome
Deductive Reasoning
- Arguments
(Premises are true)
- Logic
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Pitfalls
- Incompleteness
- Ad Hominem
3.Equivocation
- Straw man
- Dealing with Uncertainty
- Potential source of disagreement
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